Pakistan, strategically situated at the crossroads of key global regions, must capitalize on its position to navigate the geopolitical and economic shifts defining the future. By seizing opportunities in trade routes, port development, and regional connectivity, Pakistan can secure its place in a rapidly changing world.

The turn of events in the Middle East has caused the world to grapple with the worsening situation in the region and beyond. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has extended beyond expectations, while the rivalry between major powers continues, with the Asia Pacific emerging as the battleground. Mr. Trump's rise to the U.S. presidency also influences global politics. Countries align themselves according to the prevailing environment, where every danger holds the potential for opportunity. Pakistan is no exception and must carve its space in our conflict-entangled world in contemporary times.
Pakistan enjoys a geostrategic location that surpasses other countries in the region. To its southwest lies the Middle East, the Central Asian Republics (CARs) to the northwest, China to the north, and the Arabian Sea to the south. Pakistan's location offers impressive sea and land connectivity, extending across the globe. The Asia-Pacific region has become a stage for incidents driven by big power rivalry and is within Pakistan's reach. We are thus at the cusp of future conflict and prosperity zones and must not wait for geopolitical developments, as we seek to avoid our traditional reactive response.
There are indeed opportunities for us to capitalize on, and we must act on them now. The Gaza conflict has impacted the Red Sea area, where trade is no longer a peaceful endeavor. Trade is now being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope from South Africa, significantly increasing both distance and cost. Those who still wish to pass through the Red Sea must pay extra for the security measures implemented to protect merchant vessels. For instance, the alternative safe route for China has added 4,000 miles to its trade with Europe. The sea route, which is the cheapest means of trade, loses its vitality when it becomes expensive. The Russia-Ukraine war has also disrupted trade between countries and the Central Asian region. For example, the CARs, the world’s largest tea consumers, import tea from Sri Lanka, which is airlifted to Russia and then transported by road to the CARs. Naturally, the quantity is smaller, and the cost is higher. Moreover, due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this route has become increasingly unsafe.
Pakistan has three ports: Karachi Port Trust, Port Qasim Authority, and Gwadar Port Authority. The first two are major ports, each handling around 50 million tons of cargo, yet operating at only fifty percent capacity. This suggests that both ports have the potential to absorb and generate more business, a fact supported by the interest of major conglomerates such as Maersk, AD Port, and Hutchison in investing in these ports. Gwadar Port, though not yet fully operational, holds tremendous potential, especially if the western route of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is developed and fully functional. Gwadar Port benefits from its location outside the Gulf of Oman, offering the necessary depth for larger ships to dock. Recently, the New Gwadar International Airport was inaugurated, featuring the largest runway in Pakistan. In addition to handling passenger flights, the airport is also equipped to airlift cargo, pending the development of the western route.

Pakistan has three ports: Karachi Port Trust, Port Qasim Authority, and Gwadar Port Authority. The first two are major ports, each handling around 50 million tons of cargo, yet operating at only fifty percent capacity. 

Pakistan has dependable road connectivity with China, Afghanistan, and Iran. There is also rail connectivity with Iran and Türkiye. Capitalizing on its good diplomatic relations with these countries, a mechanism can be drawn whereby Pakistan uses sea, road, and rail connectivity to join different regions. For instance, trade between Far Eastern countries, including that of China with Europe, can be facilitated via Pakistan, Iran and Türkiye. Ships voyaging around the Cape of Good Hope could instead offload their cargo at Pakistani ports, from where it can be transported to its respective destinations, generating revenue for all the countries it passes through. Similarly, what is preventing Sri Lanka from shipping tea destined for the CARs and Russia to Pakistan, from where it can be transited to its intended destinations?
There is an alternate road route inside Pakistan, but there is a singular railway line. Under the CPEC, there is a plan for upgrading and doubling the 1733 km Main Line 1 (ML 1) project from Karachi to Peshawar and from Taxila to Havelian. This is necessary for the smooth and speedy transfer of goods. The Government of Pakistan has also given a go-ahead for 'Gwadar Rail Freight Connectivity', which aims to link Gwadar Port with the rest of the country via Balochistan’s hinterlands. A 1328km long railway line project will connect Gwadar to Jacobabad and Quetta via Besima. It will reinforce inland connections, enhance cargo flows, and ensure Gwadar’s competitiveness as a newly emerging modern port. There is a plan to refurbish and upgrade the Mastung-Taftan railway track. Such improvements and new developments will no doubt make our ports more viable for speedy cargo handling and generating more business. 

Pakistan has dependable road connectivity with China, Afghanistan, and Iran. There is also rail connectivity with Iran and Türkiye. Capitalizing on its good diplomatic relations with these countries, a mechanism can be drawn whereby Pakistan uses sea, road, and rail connectivity to join different regions. 

The big powers' rivalry in Asia Pacific has been strategized by the U.S. through the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which aims to impede growing Chinese influence, particularly in Asia Pacific and generally anywhere else, via creating small groups of like-minded nations and sharing support in political and military, technological, and financial domains. The strategy charts courses of action obviating concerns of important regional countries. For instance, it epitomizes India as the Net Security Provider in the Indian Ocean and supports its navy for operations all around the area. This is worrisome for Pakistan as any edge to its archrival doesn’t bode well. The Indo-Pacific Strategy is, therefore, inherently an instigator of an arms race, enmity and armed conflicts in the region. Pakistan must remain cautious of developments under this strategy. For instance, if Chinese trade is routed through Gwadar, the focus of China's adversaries will shift to the area south of Gwadar. With the Pakistan Navy tasked with providing seaward security for CPEC projects, including the approaches to Gwadar, this will place an additional burden on our forces. The permanent presence of Indian Navy assets near our coast would certainly not bode well. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the evolving situation and prepare for potential contingencies.

The Government of Pakistan has also given a go-ahead for 'Gwadar Rail Freight Connectivity', which aims to link Gwadar Port with the rest of the country via Balochistan’s hinterlands. A 1328km long railway line project will connect Gwadar to Jacobabad and Quetta via Besima. 

Regarding Mr. Trump's rise to power, he has stated his intention to stop conflicts worldwide. However, whether he will avoid encouraging situations that generate war hysteria remains uncertain. During his previous term, Mr. Trump contributed to creating such hysteria, which, in turn, boosted sales of American military hardware to various countries. It is important to recognize that the U.S. Military Industrial Complex (MIC) is a core component of the U.S. manufacturing industry, accounting for more than 60 percent of the total output. The U.S. economy thrives when its MIC operates efficiently. Under Mr. Trump's administration, it is likely that the Persian Gulf will remain a focal point for ongoing war hysteria, which would undoubtedly bring further prominence to Pakistan's coastline and ports.
Realizing the potential of our coastline is urgent, given the current global developments. Pakistan must identify opportunities and impending dangers while making the necessary preparations to navigate upcoming scenarios in the maritime domain.  

The writer is an Honorary Research Fellow at the National Institute of Maritime Affairs.
Email: [email protected]