The global stage is shifting, with traditional alliances being redefined amid rising nationalism and economic upheaval. As nations adapt, Pakistan has the potential to play a key role in reshaping future geopolitical dynamics.
It wasn’t unexpected, though most were hoping against hope. Trump is back, hopefully not with vengeance. This time he is a hardened, mature and skilled politician, who has defeated two impeachment efforts and has faced a rather long list of charges; a four years ordeal, from court cases of tax evasion to accusation of treason for disrupting the highly ‘venerable’ and time-tested democratic traditions of the American system. Donald Trump, the President elect of the United States of America, has steered through muddier waters than any other U.S. president perhaps, and is amongst the very few to get a non-consecutive second presidential term.
Well, what now? What changes, if any, will the global community experience? Will the U.S. under Trump actively assert itself to ensure that the current world order remains aligned with American socioeconomic values and 'democratic norms,' or will it withdraw into its historical, pre-World War isolation, secluded from the rest of the world by the two oceans? Of course, nothing can be predicted with certainty, but a great deal can still be reasonably estimated regarding the future course and scheme of things. That is what history teaches us, and that is what students of global politics do. History may not repeat itself in the exact same manner, but it does reveal patterns, which, if repeated, could lead to similar or closely similar outcomes.
Trump is a seasoned politician now, who has learnt his lessons hard way in fact; but that doesn’t mean that he is going to abandon his core beliefs. In fact, a businessman by profession and a media person by choice, he knows when and how to change the tactics and tone, without deviating from his original plans. No more constrained by his lack of political experience, much more confident in thwarting political opposition with majority in both houses and well prepared to ensure compliance to his policy preferences by the civil-military bureaucracy; Trump can be expected to bring about major changes on the global landscape.
it was Pakistan that helped Republican President Richard Nixon establish relations with the People’s Republic of China.
Let’s see how the global scene is likely to emerge in the next four years. First and foremost, Trump is a populist. Leaving aside for a moment the other factors that adversely affected the Democrats' vote bank, he earned the presidency mainly by selling his 'America First' agenda to the American people. Populism with ultra-nationalist sentiments has become the order of the day around the world. The late and brilliant U.S. Secretary of State from 1997 to 2001, Madeleine Albright, had apprehensively observed that 'trends towards globalization have created hyper-nationalism, which is bad.' Whether bad or good, it is the reality of the day, which mocks the ardent advocates of globalization who had envisioned Thomas More's Utopia in the form of a global village after the collapse of the Soviet Union. While More was beheaded by his otherwise good friend, King Henry VIII, for not accepting him as the head of the English Church and instead allegorically advising him to be judicious and merciful through his book, the pundits of globalization are now witnessing a reversal of the anticipated trends. Today, around the world, nationalist fervor and greater suspicion towards minorities and outsiders’ reign.
According to a report by Rachel Baig on October 22, 2024, for DW TV (Germany’s state-owned channel), violent racist crimes against Muslims in particular, and foreigners in general, have increased across Europe in recent months. Similar findings have been recorded by the Washington, D.C.-based Pew Research Center, which notes that right-wing populist parties are 'underscoring growing electoral strength in Europe in recent years,' from Italy to Sweden, and Spain to Austria and France. Populism, particularly based on demographics and ideological allegiances, is thus becoming the order of the day. Trump won his elections predominantly through populist votes. According to CNN analyst Fareed Zakaria, one of the major factors behind the Democrats' defeat was their soft stance on immigration.
Daniel Markey, a Senior Advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a former Member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Wing, very categorically states in his paper, “India as It Is”, published in July/August, 2023 edition of Foreign Affairs, that while “making democratic values the cornerstone of the U.S.-Indian relationship has always been a dubious strategy, today it is clearly doomed” and that “ever since Narendra Modi became the Indian Prime Minister nine years ago, India’s status as a democracy has become increasingly suspect”.
Thus, what conclusions can we draw from this situation? First, Trump will hold on to his America First policy, and likely do so strongly, to appease his populist base. This will require less focus on global events and more attention on the United States and its people. Even during his last term, he was rather categorical in stating that Europe should bear the financial burden of its own security. He may not withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but he will likely reduce American contributions significantly. The U.S. has spent over USD 8 trillion on the War on Terror (WOT) since 9/11, losing thousands of American lives in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, with little tangible result. Now, under Trump, American presence on the international stage will likely diminish, though it may not disappear completely. While the war in Ukraine may not end within 24 hours as Trump claimed during one of his election campaigns, it will likely conclude sooner rather than later, a fact acknowledged somewhat reluctantly by President Zelensky of Ukraine. To quote Professor Robert English of the University of Southern California, 'Trump will force all parties to the table, particularly Ukraine.' Trade wars with China may continue, but perhaps not as intensely as some predict. Again, quoting Trump, 'President Xi is my friend and he understands me.' Taiwan will likely be placed on the back burner for the time being, and Israel's offensive against Palestinians will likely pause, as will any potential confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv. This is not because Trump has any particular affection for the Palestinians, but because such conflicts divert attention, cause societal divisions, and burden the national treasury. Wars are costly in both human and financial terms, and on the very day of his election, Trump made it clear: 'We will have no wars–we will stop wars.' This is a clear message to Russia regarding Ukraine, to China regarding Taiwan, and to the world at large.
The world has started preparing for these eventualities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who as recently as 2022 was speaking of Zeitenwende—a historic turning point resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, describing it as 'an epochal tectonic shift, bringing an end to an era,' and for which a hundred-billion-euro fund was being allocated to counter Russia—is now making reconciliatory gestures. He has spoken directly with the Russian president for the first time since late 2022, and, as BBC reports, is acting more as a European envoy than as the Chancellor of Germany.
Now, let’s consider how this affects Pakistan and how Trump’s presidency presents new opportunities that we must seize.
First and foremost, whether one refers to these as favorable or fortuitous circumstances, American national interests based on geopolitical strategic considerations in South Asia, or the ideological leanings of political factions in the U.S., the Republicans have historically been more supportive of Pakistan than India. It was during Eisenhower’s Republican administration in the 1950s that Pakistan joined the U.S.-led Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) alliances. Then, in the 1980s, during the Reagan administration, Pakistan became a frontline partner in the U.S.-backed fight against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. It was also Reagan’s Republican government that equipped Pakistan with state-of-the-art F-16 fighter jets.
Next, it was the Republican government of George W. Bush in the 2000s, post-9/11, when Pakistan was designated a 'major non-NATO ally.' More importantly, it was Pakistan that helped Republican President Richard Nixon establish relations with the People’s Republic of China. The U.S. president made his maiden flight to China in February 1972 from Pakistani soil, preceded by his National Security Advisor, Dr. Henry Kissinger’s secret visit in 1971, during which he too flew to Beijing from Islamabad.
The Democrats, on the other hand, have more often than not remained inclined towards India. One could call it a conceptual fallacy or perhaps a misguided attempt to appeal to their voters. Democrats portray India as a country that shares the democratic and 'human rights' values espoused by the U.S. In addition, Democrats, as ardent advocates of globalization and free trade, find synergies with India’s economic potential and its huge consumer market. A leading factor that has often earned India bipartisan support in the United States is the American establishment’s belief in India’s ability—and, of course, ambition—to counterbalance China, both militarily and economically, in the Indo-Pacific region.
Starting with President Roosevelt’s letter to Gandhi, even before the British departure from the Indian subcontinent (mainly to win support against the Axis), to J.F.K.’s support of India against China in 1962, Bill Clinton’s courtship in the 2000s despite the sanctions imposed after India’s 1998 nuclear tests, Bush’s civilian nuclear deal in 2005, and Barack Obama’s frequently touted comments about U.S.-India relations as the 'defining partnership of the 21st century'—all of this was motivated by the considerations stated above. However, over time, it has become increasingly clear in the power corridors of the United States that India is not, and never will be, a dependable ally, nor does it share the human rights and democratic values that are dear to the ordinary American.
The now-proven Indian involvement in the killing and harassment of Sikh leaders in Canada, the U.S., and many other parts of the world has completely exposed the hypocritical nature of Indian liberal values.
Daniel Markey, a Senior Advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a former Member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Wing, very categorically states in his paper, “India as It Is”, published in July/August, 2023 edition of Foreign Affairs, that while “making democratic values the cornerstone of the U.S.-Indian relationship has always been a dubious strategy, today it is clearly doomed” and that “ever since Narendra Modi became the Indian Prime Minister nine years ago, India’s status as a democracy has become increasingly suspect”. On the issue of Human Rights, Markey goes on to emphasize that “the world’s largest democracy has seen an upsurge in violence directed at its Muslim minority, often whipped up by prominent politicians. It is trying to strip citizenship from millions of Muslim residents. It is muzzling press and silencing opposition figures”. Markey, thus, alerts the U.S. government to “rather than treating India as an ally in the fight for global democracy, it must see India (only) as an ally of convenience”. And this may be noted that these views were recorded over a year back, when Trump’s return looked like a remote possibility at best and when Biden Administration was actively involved in Ukraine and relations with China had reached the lowest ebb in recent history. With Trump on the stage, even the consideration of being an 'ally of convenience' will disappear. Furthermore, the now-proven Indian involvement in the killing and harassment of Sikh leaders in Canada, the U.S., and many other parts of the world has completely exposed the hypocritical nature of Indian liberal values.
This is, therefore, the time for Pakistan to further expose India before the international community. Pakistan must vigorously advocate for Kashmir and highlight the terrorist activities India is perpetrating, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions, for which there is ample evidence, on all available forums.
Pakistan also needs to prove its importance as a reliable partner to both the East and West—a dependable friend to the U.S., China, and Russia. It may seem like a Herculean task, but it is very much possible in light of the facts stated above, as well as the emerging international dynamics, where the U.S. is likely to be less belligerent toward both Moscow and Beijing. Pakistan should fast-track the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will not be met with hostility by the Trump Administration, since the new President calls President Xi a friend and, as per the analysis of Director Steve Tsang of the China Institute at SOAS, 'Xi and Trump can communicate on a person-to-person level.’
The diplomatic corps of Pakistan may find it difficult to keep all— the U.S., China, and Russia—in good humor, but that is what diplomacy is all about, and history is full of examples where individuals achieved impossible objectives through diplomatic skills. Talleyrand, the French Foreign Minister, was called to Vienna not as an equal participant, but to hear the verdict against his country. However, when the final deal was signed in June 1815 after months of laborious negotiations, Talleyrand not only managed to minimize the losses to France by inventing and including the principle of legitimacy but also secured France's recognition as one of the Big Five. When Napoleon, in his incarceration at St. Helena, read the treaty, he laughed and said, 'Castlereagh (British Foreign Secretary) is a fool; this peace is the sort of peace he would have made if he had been beaten.' While Talleyrand was operating from the lost position of a defeated power, Pakistan, on the other hand, has all the cards in its favor—if only they could be skillfully used.
Herodotus, the ancient Greek historian, known as the Father of History, said that the human tragedy is that they 'know much and control nothing.' He is also quoted as having said, 'Where wisdom is called for, force is of little use.' In our case, we know the directions in which things are moving and the emerging global equations. We also have the ability to control much to our benefit, but that requires wisdom, both at home and abroad.
For some reason, whether by design or circumstance, a sense of pessimism has taken root. It's time for that to change, and for Pakistan to recognize its immense potential. The country is endowed with secure borders, abundant natural resources, and a talented workforce, with over 60 percent of the population in the productive age group. Despite these strengths, the people have yet to fully realize the opportunities at their disposal.
Richard Haass, in his analysis of the global situation, The Dangerous Decade, published in Foreign Affairs (September/October 2022), when he was President of the Council on Foreign Relations, candidly concludes that "the course of this decade and the decades to come will depend on the quality of officials' political skills at home and their statecraft abroad.
The advice offered to American policymakers by one of the world’s top experts on global politics is highly relevant to Pakistan as well. While Pakistan faces challenges, many stem from internal factors, including a tendency toward a reactive rather than a proactive policy approach. This is an area where improvement is possible. A collective effort focused on long-term policy formulation across all issues of national interest, with continuous assessment of the ever-evolving international landscape, is essential. Good governance and effective service delivery should take precedence over elitism, ensuring accessibility for the public. Furthermore, those representing Pakistan abroad must continuously enhance their diplomatic skills and equip themselves with the necessary tools to safeguard national interests at any forum and on any issue.
The author is the Former Secretary to the President of Pakistan
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the publication.
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