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Saturday, December 7, 2024 07:58
India-USA Nexus and G20 Summit: India’s Bluff on Poverty and Humanity Palestine and Kashmir: Two Illegal Occupations, Two Epic Struggles Analytical Discourse of Iqbal’s Philosophy of Education The Contemporary Relevance of Allama Iqbal’s Educational Philosophy One Hundred Days of Special Investment Facilitation Council: Achievements, Challenges, and Future Prospects The Rise of Narendra Modi: From RSS Foot Soldier to India Question of Palestine Eternal Wisdom: Iqbal Building Futures: Empowering Pakistan's Youth for Tomorrow Tourism: An Essential Element for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth Connecting Youth to Global Opportunities Algorithms: The Silent Architects of Warfare Pakistani Youth: The Driving Force for National Progress Investing in Future Generations: Pakistan Army Lost Voices: The Systematic Marginalization of Indian Muslims Parallel Struggles: Examining the Palestinian and Kashmiri Quests for Self-determination Emergence of BJP as a Hindutva Force The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Transforming Pakistan Building Sustainable Cities: Urban Search and Rescue Preparedness Simulation Exercise In the Pursuit of Happiness: Understanding Hedonia, Eudemonia, and Naikan COAS’ U.S. Visit: Strengthening Ties and Fostering Collaboration A Biological Marvel of Human Heart Educational Empowerment: FC Balochistan (North) Initiates Literacy Program for Soldiers Digital Pakistan Journey: Pioneering Towards a Connected Future Driving Digital Transformation: Pakistan CJCSC Calls on His Majesty King Abdullah II Ibn Al Hussain During His Visit to Jordan COAS' Peshawar Visit Highlights Security, Socioeconomic Development and National Unity Unity in Diversity: COAS Joins Christmas Celebrations with Christian Community in Rawalpindi Chief of the Naval Staff Attends Indian Ocean Naval Symposium in Bangkok Strengthening Bonds and Elevating Collaboration: Combat Commander Turkish Air Force Calls on Chief of the Air Staff Closing Ceremony of Multinational Special Forces Exercise Fajar Al Sharq-V Strengthens Counterterrorism Collaboration Off the Beaten Track: Exploring Jiwani's Coastal Marvels and Heritage Special Investment Facilitation Council: A Game Changer for the Economy of Pakistan Rising Stars: Pakistan’s Youth Shines Bright in 2023 Indian Supreme Court’s Decision and the International Law Challenges to Justice: The Indian Supreme Court’s Fallacy in IIOJK Belt and Road Initiative: Strengthening Global Ties with Unhindered Trade and Connectivity The Media Matrix: Unraveling How Technology Shapes Our Perception Decoding Human Interaction: The Comprehensive Guide to Reading Body Language The Magic of Moscow On the Same Wavelength: Suno FM's Impact on Community Empowerment, Diversity, and Social Progress in Pakistan The Journey of SAIL: A Beacon of Hope for Autism in Gilgit-Baltistan Pakistan National Youth Convention 2024: COAS Stresses Youth's Vital Role, Urges Unity, and National Strength Vice Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China Calls on COAS COAS Attends Inauguration Ceremony of the Second Chapter of NASTP Silicon PAF's Induction and Operationalization Ceremony Showcases Technological Advancements and Operational Excellence COAS Witnesses Firing of Different Air Defense Weapon Systems During Exercise Al-Bayza-III, 2024 COAS Visits POF Wah, Highlights Importance of Indigenous Defense Industry Exercise Sea Guard-24: Strengthening Maritime Security Al-Noor Special Children School and College Celebrates International Day of Persons with Disabilities 2023 in Multan Garrison Exercise BARRACUDA-XII: Strengthening Global Cooperation for Maritime Safety and Environmental Protection Pakistan-Qatar Joint Aerial Exercise "Zilzal-II" Held in Qatar March 23, 1940: Charting the Course for Pakistan's Future Peshawar’s Namak Mandi: A Gemstone Heaven Genocide in Palestine Rising Cities, Shrinking Spaces: Tackling Overpopulation and Urbanization in Pakistan Impact of Pakistan Resolution Day on National Identity Building Leaders: Jinnah and Iqbal's Timeless Wisdom for Today's Youth National Parks–Natural Assets India's New Playbook for Extraterritorial Assassination of Opponents The Legacy of Khan Brothers in Pakistan Armed Forces (Part II) Beyond the Battlefield: AIMH’s Quest for Military History Preservation The Siege of 634 A.D. (Part II) SIFC, From Vision to Reality (Part II) A New Dawn in Pakistan's Agriculture The Crowdsourcing Practices The Last Post: Eulogy of a Hero Securing Tomorrow’s Food: Sustainable Agriculture and Aquaculture in Pakistan The Saindak Copper-Gold Project: A Beacon of Pak-China Friendship and Prosperity Prime Minister of Pakistan, Prime Minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and COAS Visit Muzaffarabad CJCSC Calls on Minister of Defense, KSA 7th International PATS Exercise-2024 Held at NCTC, Pabbi CNS Visits Coastal Belt of Sindh and Coastal Areas of Balochistan to Oversee the Conduct of Exercise Seaspark-2024 Keel Laying Ceremony of the Second HANGOR Class Submarine Held at Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works Chinese Ambassador Calls on Chief of the Air Staff Pakistan Navy Demonstrates Combat Readiness with Live Missile Firing Exercise in the North Arabian Sea PAF's Jf-17 Thunder Block-III Fighter Jet Participates in World Defense Air Show-2024 A Day of Celebration and Global Solidarity: Pakistan Day Parade 2024 Gaza: A Tragedy Beyond Words Better Late than Never... Escalating Tensions: India's Violations of the Indus Waters Treaty Preserving Pakistan Pakistan Day Parade-2024: A Celebration of National Unity and Strength Demolition of Muslim Properties in India: A Weapon of Choice and State Policy Sustainable Energy Transition: Strategies for Pakistan’s Shift towards Renewable Resources and Energy Efficiency The Impact of Climate Change on Global Health: Building Resilient Health Systems SIFC, From Vision to Reality (Part III) Emerging from the Depths: The Pakistan Army Dedicated to Promoting Tolerance and Diversity: Pakistan Army, in Collaboration with the University of Peshawar, Hosts a Successful Grand Peace Fair Pak-Saudi On Job Training 2024 CJCSC Addresses SCO Military Medical Seminar 2024 on Challenges in Military Medicines Loyalty, Honor, Duty: The Pivotal Role of Pakistan Armed Forces in Upholding Peace and Security From Darkness to Light–One Year On: Contemplating May 9, 2023 to May 9, 2024 Beyond the Smoke and Mirrors Global Perspectives on Content Regulation: Examining Network Enforcement Act and Disinformation Laws The Issue of Palestine: A Historical, Religious, and Humanitarian Perspective Modi’s Guarantee and Hindutva Incorporated Divide and Conquer: The Dangerous Surge of Anti-Muslim Rhetoric in Indian Politics India's Hybrid Warfare in Kashmir India: Where the Price of Protest is Death! Pakistani Peacekeepers and the International Peacekeeping Day Empowering Pakistan: Navigating the Path to Sustainable Energy Autarky Overpopulation: Navigating Challenges and Charting Solutions for Pakistan Pakistan and Saudi Arabia Friendship: Dawn of a New Era SIFC, From Vision to Reality (Part IV) A Tale of Two Sultans: Brigadier Sultan Ahmed, SJ & Bar (Part II) In the Footsteps of Valor: A Journey through Peshawar Garrison Pakistan Military Academy Passing Out Parade-2024 CGS Turkish Armed Forces Calls on COAS Green Pakistan Initiative Conference Highlights National Commitment to Agricultural Innovation and Economic Growth Commander Turkish Land Forces Calls on COAS Minister of Foreign Affairs, KSA, Calls on COAS Assistant Minister of Defense, KSA, Calls on COAS PAF Academy Asghar Khan Hosts Prestigious Graduation Ceremony for Aviation Cadets Faculty and Students from Muzaffargarh Government Post Graduate College Visit Multan Garrison SIFC's First Year: Transforming Pakistan's Investment Landscape SIFC’s First Birthday SIFC Building an Investor SIFC, From Vision to Reality (Part V) : Driving Growth in Industry, Tourism, and Privatization SIFC and Pakistan’s Economic Landscape: A Year in Review Chinas Transition from Industry 3.0 to 4.0 Social Media in Pakistan: Balancing Risks and Governance for National Security Indian Ambitious “Make in India” Approach for Defense Production: An Appraisal India s Bold Shift: Extraterritorial Killings and Regional Instability as the New Normal Charting a Path Towards Water Sustainability: Pakistan Comparative Analysis of IQ, EQ, SQ and AQ Harboring Opportunities: The Socioeconomic Benefits of Gwadar Port Development for Pakistan and the Region From Gridlock to Green Lanes: OLMRTS Drive Progress Evolution of Multan: A Journey Through the Past, Present, and Future Empowering Tomorrow Embracing Tradition: Welcoming the 17th Entry to Military College Sui Balochistan Champions of the Desert: Balochistan Sheikha Fatima Bint Mubarak Girls Cadet College Turbat Hosts First Passing-out Parade Secretary General of Defense and National Armaments, Italy, Calls on CJCSC U.S. CENTCOM Commander Calls on COAS Chief of Defense Forces Australia Calls on COAS Turkish Foreign Minister Visits COAS COAS and CGS UK Army’s Address at 6th Pakistan-UK Regional Stabilization Conference GHQ Investiture Ceremony Held at General Headquarters COAS Extends Condolence to Iran Following Helicopter Crash That Claimed Top Officials CNS visits PLA (Navy) Headquarters China CNS Attends 19th Western Pacific Naval Symposium CNS Attends the Launching Ceremony of 1st HANGOR Class Submarine CAS Calls on General Secretary of MOD and Commander of Iraqi Air Force Commander Southern Command and 2 Corps Visits Khairpur Tamewali Pakistan-U.S. Navy Bilateral Exercise Inspired Union 2024 Pakistan Navy's Humanitarian Mission in Balochistan's Flood-ravaged Villages The Heat is On: How Pakistan is Battling the Dire Consequences of Climate Change Solid Waste Management in Pakistan: Promotion of Sustainable Circular Economy Revolutionizing Flood Risk Management in Pakistan: Harnessing the Power of River Indus Assumptions Vs. Realities: Demystifying Pakistan‘s Defense Budget Unresolved Turmoil, The Gaza Conflict and Israel‘s Strategic Quagmire Post Shangri-La Dialogue: Prospects for Regional Security and Stability Optimizing the Benefits of CPEC 2.0 Sagadat Nurmagambetov: An Example of Persistence, Courage, and Selfless Devotion to the Motherland From Digital Resistance to Pro-Palestinian Encampment SIFC: Catalyst for Foreign Investment Driving Pakistan‘s Economic Transformation Charting a Green Future: How SIFC is Leading Pakistan‘s Green Revolution Digital Terrorism: Implications for Pakistan‘s National Security and Policy Tich‘ Cowan – The Fighting Admiral Leepa Valley: Where Nature Meets Patriotism RUMANZA: Transforming Pakistan‘s Golfing Landscape with World-Class Excellence Inside Okara Garrison: Students Witness Pakistan Army‘s Training and Tradition Prime Minister Pays Tribute at Sepoy Haroon William‘s Funeral Service CJCSC Visits Turkiye Chief of Defense Forces Australia Calls on CJCSC COAS Visits the LOC in the Haji Pir Sector Chief of Royal Malaysian Navy Calls on CNS Royal Saudi Naval Forces Delegation Visits Pakistan CAS Visits Command and Staff College Quetta Commander Multan Corps Reviews Troops’ Watermanship Training in Okara Rescue at Sea: Pakistan Navy Saves 8 Iranian Fishermen Amid Vessel Fire Historical Foundations of Pakistan and the Requirements for Nation-Building Quaid, WWII, and the Pathway to Pakistan India and Israel: Similarities (Part I) Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir: Five Years Later Beyond the Headlines: How Kashmir‘s Status Change Alters the Conflict Food Insecurity: The Hidden Threat of Illicit Foot Trade Modi‘s Impact on the Soul of India The Role of Education in Overcoming Human Violence in Pakistan Rights as a Weapon of Leverage in the 5th Generation Warfare Vision for a Peaceful and Prosperous Pakistan: Conceptual Aspects of the Fast-Paced Socioeconomic Development Program Navigating the Meritocracy Maze: Challenges, Strategies, and Pathways to Progress in Pakistan Bakhtawar Shah: A Legendary Character of Gilgit-Baltistan The Importance of Civic Awareness in Pakistan From Multan to the Global Stage: How Pakistan is Reclaiming Freelancing Success The Revival of a Cherished Tradition: Burn Hall College Hosts Inaugural Tent Pegging Competition CJCSC and Russian Officials Commit to Enhanced Bilateral Collaboration Chief of Staff of the Brazilian Navy Calls on CJCSC 97th Anniversary of PLA Commemorated at GHQ 121st Midshipmen and 29th Short Service Commissioning Parade Held at Pakistan Naval Academy Pre-Induction Training of 23 Cavalry Regiment Demonstrated at Muzaffargarh Field Firing Ranges Pakistan-United States Infantry Rifle Company Exchange Exercise-2024 Held at NCTC, Pabbi PNS Babur's Historic Voyage: Strengthening Pakistan-Türkiye Naval Ties Certificate Award Ceremony of the First RSNF ASW Training Course Held at PNS Mehran Bridging Dreams and Reality—A Path to Pakistan‘s Prosperity Remembering the Spirit of September 6, 1965 The Spirit of Indo-Pakistan War 1965 The Hour of Glory: The Battle of Jassoran 1965 105 MM Pack Howitzer: The Infantryman’s Friend Major Aziz Bhatti Shaheed: The Unyielding Defender of Pakistan Battle of Burki 1965: The Pivotal Clash at Lahore‘s Gates Commemorating Courage: 1965 War Monuments of Manawan and Batapur Israel and India: Similarities (Part-II) The Rising Demon of Islamophobia Israel’s Relentless Violence CPEC and Beyond: The Strategic Depth of China-Pakistan Ties NATO‘s Eastward Expansion and Security Dilemma The Growth Trap: Population Boom vs. Resource Strain Climate Change and National Security: The Emerging Risks for Pakistan Integrating Climate Change Mitigation with Eco-Agro-Tourism for Local Economic Development in Northern Pakistan SIFC: A Guarantor of Strong and Secure Pakistan Plant 4 Pakistan: Green Revolution for a Sustainable Future Civic Awareness and National Security Harvard Business School Delegation Meets with COAS COAS Hosts Ceremony at GHQ to Honor Olympian Arshad Nadeem’s Historic Achievement in Paris Olympics 2024 Pakistan and Romania Pledge Enhanced Naval Cooperation During CNS’ Official Visit Pakistan Navy Commissions PNS HUNAIN in Romania British High Commissioner to Pakistan Calls on CAS General Secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Iraq Calls on CAS Strengthening Ties at Sea: RSNF Cadets Complete Advanced Training with Pakistan Navy Visit of Students and Faculty of Different Educational Institutions of Khanewal District to Okara Garrison Selective Justice: The Implications of Hinduization on Kashmir's Future Global Advocacy for the Freedom Movement in Kashmir Hinduization of Law Kashmir in Focus: The Abrogation of Article 370 and Its Implications under International Law Taliban Rule and Regional Stability India and Israel: Similarities (Part III) The Indian Nuclear Black Market: Perilous for South Asia International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction A Regional Approach to Tackling Terrorism Digital Frontlines: How Pakistan Can Navigate the Challenges of Fifth-Generation Warfare Unlocking Strategic Investments: How Pakistan’s SIFC Can Bridge Gaps in Foreign Direct Investments, Climate Action, and Economic Growth Safe and Strong Pakistan: The Role of SIFC in Overcoming Pakistan‘s Policy Implementation Challenges From the Heart of Tirah: A Soldier‘s Reflection on Sacrifice and Duty Emerging Talent: Ozair Bin Abbas Shines in Pakistani Golf Inspiring Hope through Sports: Pakistan Army‘s Commitment to Kashmiri Youth Gilgit-Baltistan Liberation War 1947-48: The Untold Story of Courage, Sacrifice, and the Quest for Freedom Henry Charles ‘Hal’ Bevan Petman (1894-1980) Advancing Cardiac Care: Why AFIC/NIHD is the Go-To Destination for Cutting-Edge Cardiac Care in Pakistan Guardians of Peace: Pakistan‘s Extensive Contributions to UN Peacekeeping A New Era in Naval Defense: Historic Induction of PNS HUNAIN and BABUR Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Reviews Army War Game Outcomes and Operational Readiness CJCSC Visits People‘s Republic of China COAS Inaugurates Innovista Indus IT Park, Emphasizes Tech-Driven Economic Growth COAS Visits Orakzai District, Encouraging Brave Soldiers in their Commitment to Peace CAS Calls on Turkish President and Military Leadership During His Visit to Türkiye Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran Calls on CAS Pakistan-Indonesia Joint Exercise Elang Strike-II Held at NCTC, Pabbi Government College Sahiwal Students and Faculty Visit Sahiwal Garrison Before All is Lost: A Call for Justice for Palestine From the Rubble: The Struggle for Palestinian Survival Amidst Bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon Israel’s Strategy of Statehood and Identity Erasure Netanyahu’s Game Israel’s Iron Dome: Defense or Oppression Pakistan and the SCO Toward a Collaborative Future: Pakistan Turning the Tide: Innovative Solutions for Water Conservation in Pakistan Military Use of Artificial Intelligence by India Healing Heroes: Inside Pakistan’s Leading Rehabilitation Center Iqbal’s Vision for a Unified Muslim World Amidst Modern Challenges Iqbal’s Ode to Humanity: Reflections on Prophets, Poets, and Philosophers Chameleons of War,How Military Uniforms Evolved to Meet Combat Demands In Memory of Major Wasif Hussain Shah Shaheed (SBt): The Braveheart of Datta Khel Merging Visions: The Shared Path of Economic Advancement for China and Pakistan Pakistan Military Academy Passing Out Parade-2024 CJCSC Attends SVI’s Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference 2024 COAS Witnesses the Ongoing Multinational Exercise Indus Shield-2024 Minister of Investment, KSA, H. E. Khalid Bin Abdulaziz Al Falih Calls on COAS Malaysian Prime Minister Calls on COAS Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus, Calls on COAS Azerbaijan 7th Meet of Pakistan-KSA Bilateral Defense Industrial Forum Held at Riyadh, KSA Pakistan Army Aviation Showcases Aerial Field Fire Training at Muzaffargarh Field Firing Ranges Al-Barq Hockey Championship Finale 2024: Redefining the Sporting Moments at Okara Garrison Pakistan Army Team Triumphs at Cambrian Patrol 2024, Secures Gold Medal on 65th Anniversary of International Exercise Students and Faculty of Government College Chowk Azam Visits Multan Garrison
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Dr. Muhammad Farooq

The author works under the Ministry of Defense.

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Hilal English

Climate Change and National Security: The Emerging Risks for Pakistan

September 2024

Despite a growing consensus on climate change's imminent threat to global stability and security, decisive action remains elusive. Pakistan must urgently embrace innovative strategies and adaptive policies to confront this escalating crisis head-on.



Climate change has become a fast-growing, potent threat to human existence and survival with severe repercussions for the states' national power. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, frequent floods, and accelerated sea level rise have strained natural resources, leading to food insecurity, water scarcity, and infrastructural deterioration. Mass migration and displacement from vulnerable regions, alongside huge population growth, have created management crises and governance issues in developing countries, including Pakistan. Pakistan ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries, with 0.3 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions while bearing huge effects from climate threats. The devastating floods of 2010 and 2022 have further imbalanced the economic growth, industrial progression and services sector, exposing governance and infrastructural fragility. Increased death ratio, spreading climate diseases, and lack of  capacity to rehabilitate vulnerable populations have created national security challenges for the country. The unmanageable and inevitable climate threat would further strain national security, especially with a depleting economic situation, accelerated inflation and rapidly increasing unemployment. This article aims to assess Pakistan's vulnerability to climate threats as a national security crisis, evaluate the state's response and institutional capacity, and propose policy measures to enhance resilience and address climate-related risks.
Climate change refers to significant and irreversible changes in the global environment, including prolonged heatwaves and weather patterns. The fast-growing changes occur due to human-induced industrial and economic activities, changing rainfall patterns, storms, and global temperature changes. This strains natural resources and thus leads to the degradation of society's economic and industrial base. The accelerated pace of weather changes and an increase of 1.5 to 20C severely impact human survival.1 Population explosion and mass migration from vulnerable regions to settled areas further add to the growing challenges and worsen the management issues. The envisioned future would be prone to food insecurity, water scarcity, infrastructural deterioration, and depletion of natural resources.


Pakistan ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries, with 0.3 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions while bearing huge effects from climate threats. 


Climate change was recognized as a non-traditional security threat by the end of the 20th century when the rapidly growing climate effects surfaced on socioeconomic and governance aspects. The effects rapidly multiplied in the developing countries, exacerbating existing challenges, worsening governance and authority and causing a law-and-order situation. The lack of resources, financial crisis, and insufficient institutional capability have exacerbated disasters and management issues. Unmanaged mass migration from vulnerable areas and the failure to rehabilitate climate refugees have worsened climate effects, leading to the emergence of social evils, climate-related diseases, and conflicts. Consequently, these issues have threatened the national security of vulnerable states. Therefore, climate change has become a significant non-traditional security threat to human survival, rapidly reshaping the world.
As the global south experiences more frequent and intense droughts, storms, floods, heatwaves, and rising sea levels, the West and the U.S. also face abrupt wildfires in forests and the closure of routine life due to prolonged heatwaves. These variations in the climate cause loss of infrastructure, reduced fertility, and crop yields that forced population displacement and unemployment.2 Reduced water capacity and unfavorable temperature and precipitation variations could have serious socioeconomic consequences in agriculture-dependent economies like Pakistan. Besides negatively affecting food availability, water scarcity results in inadequate and insufficient energy by reducing reservoir water.  
Pakistan is among the top 10 most vulnerable countries, confronted with the rapidly growing effects of climate change and global warming. Consequently, rising temperatures, flash floods, and irregular patterns of monsoons have damaged agricultural and energy infrastructure and economic and industrial systems, causing huge displacement and climate migration. The large-scale floods of 2010 and the super floods of 2022 highlighted areas for improvement in the country's governance system, institutional balance, capacity, and rehabilitation mechanisms. The situation was further worsened by unmanageable inflation, rising unemployment, deteriorating health infrastructure, and unjust distribution of shelter and food items. The environment contributed to lawlessness, increased crime rate, and unparalleled rifts, further causing an imbalanced society. It is believed that such a situation is conducive to extremist elements of the society, which could be exploited for an anti-state agenda. 
To mitigate the climate effects and secure its elements of national power, Pakistan always diverts available funds for rescue operations, provision of food, shelter, and medicines, and rehabilitation and resettlement projects, at the cost of compromising development projects and improving the economic and industrial situation. Moreover, Pakistan is forced to borrow huge loans from international donors and developed nations, which further overstrains the worsening economic situation and brings disparity between imports and exports. 
Today, Pakistan faces unprecedented climate threats, including intense droughts, water scarcity, fire eruptions, rising sea levels, flash floods, melting glaciers, and storms, severely affecting the country's national power.
Climate Change and National Security    
The accelerated pace of climate change and its severe effects were realized after the Industrial Revolution, which incorporated large-scale development and industrial projects. Excessive carbon emissions and burning fossil fuels are major contributors to climate change. Forest degradation and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to global warming and frequent floods, which have endangered human life and existence. Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting different geographical areas, including South Asia. Environmental scientists believe that the earth's temperature will exceed 1.4-5.8 0C by the end of the century, severely affecting human security.3 The climate disasters would force huge climate refugees from vulnerable regions to settled areas, further compounding the issue. Rising temperatures would cause water scarcity due to a decrease in precipitation. Stress on already depleting water resources would increase droughts and decline crop yields. Effects on agriculture would drastically lead to product price hikes.  
Fragile economies are more vulnerable to climate threats due to their severe effects on production, services, and infrastructure, causing a huge unemployment ratio. This situation instigates conflicts, crimes, inflation, and food shortages and derails youth, adding to lawlessness and social instability. Resultant youth frustration and brain drain would hinder the state's production, causing more imports. The economic situation would further worsen with the huge influx of climate refugees from rural to urban environments, causing crimes, conflicts and humanitarian crises.  
Environmental scientists realized the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming during the 19th century. By the end of the 20th century, the global community acknowledged the association between climate threat and national security. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1995 to counter growing security threats. This panel initiated the research on climate threats to human survival. However, it was in 2010 that climate change was formally considered a 'non-traditional security threat' when Germany took over the lead role in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).4 Climate change was endorsed in the February 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review as a threat multiplier, which would lead to conflicts in the future. Hence, climate change can potentially damage peace and stability by exacerbating tensions and conflicts in the society. 
Due to severe climate effects on the elements of national power, i.e., geography, national resources, population, economic and political stability, military power, and national behavior, the global community has associated climate change and global warming with non-traditional security threats to states. The definition of national security has also been expanded, integrating climate change with other threats to human security.
Climate-Induced Security Threats to Pakistan
Climate change is Pakistan's biggest security threat, and for the past two decades, it has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index.5 Pakistan contributes less than one per cent of the greenhouse gases to the earth's atmosphere but bears huge effects of global carbon emissions. Pakistan has been confronted with climate effects since the start of the 21st century. The earthquake of 2005 and large-scale floods of 2010, 2014, and 2022 further damaged the already deteriorating economy and depleted natural resources.6 These calamities cause geopolitical and socioeconomic stress, such as displacement, economic stagnation, and damage to infrastructure and provoke social unrest. It is also pertinent that Pakistan’s limited financial and technical capacity hinders our will to adapt to these adverse effects. 
Rising temperatures and excessive flooding have disrupted social life in the country while posing serious challenges to national security and economic stability. The majority of Pakistan's population is vulnerable to long-term climate risk, where approximately 10,000 people die annually due to climate-related diseases, causing an estimated USD 4 billion in financial loss. The huge floods of 2010 across the country affected more than 20 million people while damaging 20 percent of the land.7 Similarly, the 2022 super floods displaced approximately thirty-three million people and caused the loss of 1700 lives. As a result, infrastructure damage and water shortages have imbalanced Pakistan's food security, production, and supply mechanisms.8 Millions of people went below the poverty line with no access to education, health, and other resources. Due to huge losses and the state's inability to secure the exposed population, Pakistan sought loans from international forums and developed countries, which further stressed its economic crisis. 
Due to rising and prolonged heatwaves, excessive flooding, and intense waterfalls, food production has reduced tremendously, particularly wheat yield, which has affected food security in Pakistan. The rising threat of food insecurity and water shortage was projected to the global community by Pakistan after the devastating floods of 2022. It is also significant that the prolonged effects of floods, water scarcity, and heatwaves have rendered farmers vulnerable to survival crises, limiting their options of producing good crops. As per UN reports, Pakistan is facing a crisis of food shortages, which are further deteriorating by 10 per cent annually. 
Apart from water scarcity, Pakistan is also facing the challenge of water pollution, which creates hygiene issues and causes more climate diseases. Due to the failure to fulfil provincial water requirements, the provinces have expressed their reservation and dissatisfaction over the water distribution share, creating rifts among the people of different provinces. As per Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) statistics, national rainfall for March 2022 was 62 per cent below normal and ranked 9th driest month since 1961, while rainfall was largely below normal over all parts of the country with Balochistan (-66 per cent), Sindh (-65 per cent), Punjab (-65 per cent), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (-66 per cent) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (-48 per cent) all experienced extreme deficient rainfall.9  
The constant and growing threat of floods, glacier melting, prolonged heatwaves, food shortages, and water scarcity has led to urban migration, which has security implications for settled areas.10 Apart from contributing to the existing crime rate, climate migration puts huge pressure on critical infrastructure, energy resources, supply roads, and other natural resources. A 2016 report warned that climate-related stress could push as much as 50 per cent of Pakistan's rapidly growing population to urban areas in the next 10-15 years and close to 70 per cent by the end of the century.11   
Pakistan's deteriorated health infrastructure could not address the water-related issues and health crisis. World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than 250,000 additional deaths per year are expected between 2030 and 2050 due to climate-induced malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heatstroke. In 2015, approximately two thousand people died from climate-induced diseases, including heatstroke and dehydration. Floods also contaminate freshwater supplies and disrupt water infrastructure, exacerbating the risk of waterborne diseases. As a result, diseases like malaria and diarrhea spread, adversely affecting the health security of Pakistan. The concentration of water also results in the spread of the dengue virus, threatening large populations every year.   
Pakistan's economy is largely dependent on natural resources, especially water channels, which are vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. The geopolitical location of Pakistan among unfriendly countries also hinders its development and exacerbates climate effects on the country. Every year during monsoon, many regions of Pakistan are vulnerable to floods, which forces the government to initiate rescue operations and resettlement of exposed and affected populations. During heavy floods, India releases large amounts of water, which causes devastation to agricultural products and infrastructure across a vast area and displaces millions of people.12 The unannounced release of huge amounts of water inundates vast areas of Pakistan, causing serious tension between the two neighbors. 
Though the water of the River Kabul has gradually reduced due to the construction of dams within Afghanistan, climate change has also played a significant role. Such actions by neighboring countries could further stress water availability in Pakistan and severely impact agricultural production. Additionally, this situation may lead to mistrust between neighboring countries, potentially damaging bilateral relations in the future.
As endorsed by the U.S.' Office of National Intelligence, Pakistan is among the vulnerable countries facing sociopolitical and socioeconomic instability due to severe climate change. Climate crises have gradually surged every year in volatile regions of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Such crisis, amid the government's inability to address public needs, could encourage anti-state movements such as Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) and Fitna al Khawarij (FaK), formerly recognized as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to lure in food-deprived youth for their anti-state agendas. The involvement of non-state actors could create an environment of conflict and violence, which would further destabilize the state and cause economic losses.  
There is a strong linkage between natural disasters and mental disorders. Extreme heat, excessive floods, rising sea levels and global warming threaten human survival and damage to properties and infrastructure, making life difficult. Such a difficult and hostile environment affects human behavior, reducing their patience and instigating their aggressive posture and wild moods. Psycho-physical symptoms also include mood disturbance, irritability, anxiety, mental and physical weakness, hypertension, and headache.13  Intolerant behavior leads to crises and conflicts in society, causing sociopolitical breakdown, ultimately decimating the parameters of national security. 
Hot weather conditions frequently cause forest fires, damaging significant national assets. The country's geographical position increases the severity of the temperatures, drying up the moisture from the soil and vegetation, making it more vulnerable to flammability.14 The frequent wildfires destroyed 189 acres of land in 2021, 45 acres of Margalla National Park in 2022, and 40 per cent of the trees in the pine forests of the Koh-e-Suleiman range.  
Recommendations    
Increase of 0.50C in annual mean temperature and approximately 10 cm in sea level along the coastal areas of Karachi reflects the growing concerns about Pakistan's vulnerability to the climate threat. Economic preponderance at the global level would lead to an alarming increase of 3-50C in the country's temperature, which would further threaten its survival. Increased water volume in rivers, frequent floods, and large-scale wildfires have threatened natural resources, the compactness of the population, and millions of people's lives. The climate has become gradually more unpredictable and is likely to persist if global consensus is not developed for immediate measures.
Today, climate threast pose a greater risk to a country's security than terrorism.15 The climate threat to Pakistan may exacerbate conflicts over strained resources, create tensions among provinces over the distribution of national assets, wider disparities between ethnic groups,  cause population relocation, lead to uneven and disordered urbanization, increase food insecurity, and heighten poverty and unemployment, all of which would be detrimental to Pakistan's national security. Pakistan’s crucial reliance  on natural resources exposes it to the adverse effects of global warming, which requires urgent and immediate measures. Pakistan has already adopted various measures to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate threat; however, considering the accelerated pace of its effects, the pace should be stepped up.
Despite consensus, the National Security Policy (NSP) lacks a focused approach. Practical measures have not been taken to mitigate the effects, address the country's vulnerability, and strengthen institutional capacity. Establishing the Ministry of Climate Change and allocating PKR 10 billion in budget 2022-23 for institutionalizing climate response are positive steps.16 However, these funds are mainly diverted to relief and rescue operations in flood-affected areas every year. National orientation needs to be harnessed to meet the growing climate crisis in the country, as was done against terrorism and COVID-19. 
Climate awareness should be introduced in academic institutions, and research should be encouraged as part of public preparation campaigns. National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) should be organized to counter climate threats and integrate various national forums, including the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). A strong and credible leadership would steer the national psyche towards combating climate effects. Such leadership would drive policies towards reducing pollution and mitigating the effects of climate change.
The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) was approved in 2012, and it urged the implementation of climate adaptation under a climate change action plan. Mitigating and adapting actions are the two key ways of combating climate change. The country's more immediate and pressing task is preparing itself to adapt to climate change.17 The updated NCCP-2021 aims to steer Pakistan towards climate resilience and low-carbon development. In 2021, the climate threat was officially recognized as a national security concern at the Islamabad Security Dialogue (ISD).18 The government's release of the NSP 2022-2026 highlighted its impact on development, economic security, food security, and water security. The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national defense strategies. 
The foremost step at the government level is to ensure adaptation, climate resilience, and sustainability. Flood-prone areas should be earmarked through constant monitoring and initiate timely evacuation of people before the floods. In safe places, permanent settlements for vulnerable populations would deny damage to human life and property. Construction along water channels is the major cause of urban flooding, which needs legislation and implementation. Local and provincial institutions should be equipped with more health facilities and modern technologies to sustain the effects of climate change. Training of disaster management workers and institutions would reduce risk factors to human lives and economic deterioration. 
Similarly, health infrastructure should be improved in all exposed regions capable of handling water-related diseases. International and national health agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must be incorporated while planning the construction of hospitals. Moreover, free treatment and medicine facilities should be extended to affected areas for better results. Planning mobile health teams would facilitate improved health situations in vulnerable areas.
The construction of plastic roads is an internationally recognized trend for reducing climate impact and recycling plastic waste. These roads are environmentally friendly and produce less carbon. They also significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.19 Pakistan should consider constructing plastic roads to help mitigate the effects of climate change.
The government should encourage clean energy sources to mitigate the effects of climate change and reduce carbon emissions. Investment in renewable energy would reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and the effects of growing climate change. Electric transport and solar technology would help ensure such management. Strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in methane emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution. 
Considering the growing climate threat, humans would be forced to live a neo-normal life; hence, passive measures would be adopted to reduce its effects. Resilient water supply and sanitation systems should be institutionalized to withstand climate impacts, and early warning systems for floods and heavy rains should be implemented. Climate-smart agriculture, such as drip irrigation, can help reduce water wastage. Additionally, reforestation efforts should be concentrated in vulnerable areas to mitigate flood impacts and maintain a sustainable water table. Pakistan's current forest cover is about 4.8 per cent of the total land area, significantly less than the international recommendation of 12 per cent.20 The government can invest in building entirely new, distributed generation power systems that do not require grids and use non-polluting technologies for industry. It should also promote climate-resistant infrastructure and housing developments in climate-affected regions. Priority should be given to addressing the social and economic needs of these areas, with a more focused approach on education, healthcare, health reforms, and employment. Emphasis should also be placed on developing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure.
Pakistan should enact legislation and ensure strict enforcement against deforestation and the burning of agricultural waste to reduce pollution and combat global warming. Construction along water channels should be strictly prohibited, and housing developments should not be permitted on agricultural lands. Legislation to protect the rights of laborers and farmers would strengthen the country's agricultural and industrial base. Ensuring minimum wages for laborers and a stable livelihood for farmers would support their survival and sustained efforts during challenging times.
The ill-planned expansion of urban areas and housing societies with inadequate services has already exacerbated climate impacts. The government should ensure the incorporation of green infrastructure into urban planning, including the creation of green spaces, plantations, and the use of sustainable building materials and designs.
India's strategy of weaponizing water sources against Pakistan as part of their rivalry has caused significant devastation in the country. Pakistan needs to develop consensus with both neighbors through a water-sharing treaty to avert the risk of regional conflict. Pakistan should construct dams and reservoirs to store excess water for agricultural and energy generation purposes.
Recently, India, Israel, and the UAE initiated the creation of a food corridor to address food security challenges. Pakistan should tackle its own food security issues by developing similar facilities in collaboration with friendly Islamic countries and China. Additionally, Pakistan should establish a food storage bank to prepare for the future challenges. Population growth must be managed through strict policies. According to the latest population census, Pakistan's population stands at 241.49 million as of 2023, reflecting the alarming rate of population growth.
Pakistan should utilize global agreements against climate change by actively participating in international regimes such as the Montreal Protocol (1987), the Kyoto Protocol (2005), and the Paris Agreement (2015). The basic agenda of these forums is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through coordinated efforts. Pakistan should urge developed countries to initiate measures for climate order honestly and grant maximum funds to developing countries to handle climate threats. Developed nations should use modern technology to undertake modern techniques of agriculture and renewable energy. Environmental scientists believe that with desperate measures and the use of modern technology, weather effects can be slowed down and global temperature can be stabilized. On World Environment Day in 2022, Pakistan urged wealthy countries to establish a green fund to support the world's poorest countries. 
Climate change, being a threat multiplier, is causing poverty, conflicts and environmental degradation at the global level, and Pakistan is no exception. The threat has become more pronounced due to the Russia-Ukraine war and conflict-related international humanitarian crises. By 2050, it has been projected that crop yields in South Asia will be reduced up to 30 per cent and freshwater availability will decrease by 12-20 per cent due to climate change. As predicted, climate effects would be exacerbated due to poor governance and lack of capacity, exposing more than 5.7 million people to flooding by 2030 in Pakistan.21 Climate variations would also cost USD 14 billion to the country's deteriorating economic situation.22 This combination of climate hazards and existing vulnerabilities threatens security for the country, the region and beyond. Climate change has already introduced conflicts in many countries, including Syria, Yemen, and Sudan.23 Despite growing consensus that climate change has the potential to disrupt societies' milieu and ultimately threaten human security, the global powers are still far from implementing desired policies. Pakistan needs to introduce neo-normal and adaptation policies to mitigate the effects of climate change. 


The author works under the Ministry of Defense.


1.     IPCC report, 'Code red' for human-driven global heating, warns UN chief’, UN News, August 9, 2021.
2.     Zahoor Khan, ‘Climate Change: Redefining Pakistan’s Security’, J-SAPS Volume 02, Number 02. 
3.     Syed Inam Ali Naqvi, ‘Climate Change as a Challenge to Pakistan's National Security’, World Geostrategic Insight, August 19, 2022. 
4.     Richard A. Mathew, ‘Is Climate Change a National Security Issue?', Issues in Science and Technology, Spring 2011, Vol. 27. No. 3 (pages 49-60). 
5.     Jumaina Siddiqui, ‘Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency’, United States Institute of Peace, July 7, 2022. 
6.     Bilal Satti, ‘Impacts of 2022 Super Floods on National Security of Pakistan’, The Diplomatic Insight, September 29, 2022. 
7.     Zahra Khan Durrani et al, ‘Climate Induced Security Threats to Pakistan’, CRSS Research, January-April 2023; Climate-Induced-Security-Threats-to-Pakistan.pdf (crss.pk) (accessed July 5, 2023). 
8.     Jumaina Siddiqui, ‘Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency’, United States Institute of Peace, July 7, 2022. 
9.     APP, ‘Climate Change declared as a major reason behind unprecedented forest fires’, Pakistan Today, June 11, 2022.  
10.   Gabriela Nagle Alverio, Jeannie Sowers & Erika Weinthal, ‘Displaced to Cities: Conflict, Climate Change, and Rural-to-Urban Migration’, United States Institute of Peace, June 15, 2023. 
11.   Moeen Khan, ‘In Pakistan, Climate Change is the Primary Threat to National Security’, South Asian Voices, October 22, 2019. 
12.   Rina Saeed Khan, ‘Climate change poses a major security threat to Pakistan, says military’, The Third Pole,  January 9, 2015.
13.   Paolo Cianconi, Sophia Betro and Luigi Janiri, ‘The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review’, Frontiers, Volume 11 - 2020 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074. 
14.   Roshan Mustafa Malik, ‘The grave situation of forest fires in Pakistan’, Global Village Space, June 23, 2023. 
15.   Daniyal Khan, ‘The Impact of Climate Change on National Security of Pakistan’, Times Glo, April 7, 2022.
16.   Jumaina Siddiqui, ‘Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency’, United States Institute of Peace, July 7, 2022. 
17.   Government of Pakistan, ‘National Climate Change Policy’, Ministry of Climate Change Islamabad, October 2021, NCCP Report.pdf (mocc.gov.pk) 
18.   Farzana Haider and Adil Sultan, ‘Threats from Climate Change to the Military Security of Pakistan’, Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. XI, No. 1 Summer 2022. 
19.   ‘How Plastic Roads Can Help Save the Environment’, ProPakistani.pk, April 28, 2023. 
20.   Haniya Randhawa, “Deforestation vs Population Growth,” The Express Tribune, August 21, 2023.
21.   Sharon Burke, Liz Saccoccia, Susanne Schmeier, Mohd Faizee and Marlena Chertock, ‘How Floods in Pakistan Threaten Global Security’, World Resources Institute, February 14, 2023. 
22.   Zahoor Khan, ‘Climate Change: Redefining Pakistan’s Security’, J-SAPS Volume 02, Number 02. 
23.   Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, ‘Climate change and national security’, The News International, September 5, 2022.

 

Dr. Muhammad Farooq

The author works under the Ministry of Defense.

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