The River Indus, with an annual runoff of 154 million acre-feet, is crucial for agriculture and capable of generating over 70,000 MW of clean electricity, tripling Pakistan's total energy needs. Additionally, it offers significant potential for inland shipping, similar to historical practices during the Mughal and British eras.

The mighty River Indus has 154 million acre-feet (MAF) of annual runoff water, known as the lifeline for agriculture. It is also capable of producing more than 70,000 megawatts (MW) of cheaper, clean electricity, which is three times more than the total energy requirement of Pakistan. Additionally, it has the potential for unmatched inland shipping facilities, as experienced in the past during the Mughal and British eras. The S.S. Jhelum/Sea Master, a vessel 154 feet long and 34 feet wide, sailed the River Indus from Europe to Kalabagh.

The flow of the River Indus is trans-country, extending throughout its length of more than 1900 kilometers (km) from the northern high peaks to the Arabian Sea in the south. This provides maximum opportunities for irrigating the plains in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh as it flows from north to south. The precipitation received in the catchments of the River Indus is in the form of snowfall from December to March and monsoon rainfall from June to August, with both types of precipitation being of equal quantity. Snowfall occurs in the northern portion above Tarbela, in the catchment area of the River Indus, specifically in the northern parts of the districts of Mansehra, Swat, Upper Dir, and the entirety of the districts of Chitral, Indus Kohistan, and the province of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Monsoon precipitation occurs in the southern two-thirds of Pakistan, within the catchment area of the River Indus.
The winter snowfall of December to April is received in the extreme north of the catchment area of River Indus, melted from June to August, producing runoff water of almost 0.4 million cusecs in the River Indus. This runoff water, flowing towards the south, joins the runoff water of the same quantity of monsoon rains that occur in the southern low-altitude areas below Tarbela, doubling the water flow in the River Indus Basin, resulting in devastating floods of more than a million cusecs as experienced in 2010 and 2022. 

Every year, from November to March, our media highlights water scarcity and theft in one province or another. And during July and August, the sky is on the suffering from the world's worst flood disasters. 
This unfortunate phenomenon is a routine matter in our country, with slight fluctuations in the intensity of floods each year. The floods during July and August destroyed billions of dollars' worth of property, infrastructure, and crops, and also inflicted heavy losses on human life, livestock, and valuable water, which could have otherwise been used during water shortages from September to March. Out of the 145 MAF of the River Indus’ runoff water, we have a total water storage capacity of 13.64 MAF in the Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma reservoirs, which equals 9 percent of the total runoff water. In Pakistan, 64 percent of the population resides in rural areas, primarily engaged in agriculture. Crops suffered severely from water shortages from October to March.
During July and August, 40 MAF of water, worth billions of dollars and a natural blessing, was discharged to the Arabian Sea due to poor government planning, causing additional losses estimated at USD 10 billion from the 2022 floods. In contrast, India, with a total runoff water of 750 MAF, has a storage capacity of 245 MAF, which is 33 percent, spread across 4,436 reservoirs throughout the country.
Redirecting investment towards harnessing the potential of this 40 MAF natural blessing could lead to producing cheap and clean hydropower, enhancing agriculture crop production, and improving river transport systems, promoting effective "flood risk management".
Flood Risk Management 
The River Indus flows through the heart of Pakistan along its entire length of 1900 km, originating from peaks over 26,000 feet high in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush ranges in the north, and ending at the Arabian Sea in the south. The Indus provides water for agriculture, generates cheap electricity, and historically served as a shipping route from Karachi to Kalabagh. During the Mughal and British eras, large ships like the S. S. Jhelum, with three stories, a length of 154 feet, and a width of 34 feet, navigated the River Indus, transporting passengers and goods up to Kalabagh.
Control of the Water Flow Regime of the River Indus 
The famous writer Mr. Arnold J. Toynbee has termed ‘Indus in fetters’ in his renowned essay taught to the students of B.A. English in the textbook Essay and Composition, during the decades of 1970-90. On reaching Attock, the Indus enters mountains. Its waters then flow through a narrow and rocky path from Attock to Kalabagh. The writer refers to these two places as fetters of the Indus River because its path through the rocks is like a prison where its waters are kept confined. Therefore, to control the flow, dams must be constructed on sites and locations motioned in the map and table. 

Completion of under construction Munda Dam on River Swat, and Dassu and Basha Dams on the River Indus, and the additional construction of fourteen dams on the sites shown in the table will control the floods in the country, including Dir, Swat, and Peshawar valleys once and for all. These dams will provide storage for the unattended floodwater, saving billions of dollars of damage to the national economy. The stored water in the dams shall ensure a constant water supply to irrigate more agricultural lands. Consequent to the construction of these dams, 11150 megawatts of cheap and clean electricity will be generated for industrial development and utilization in Pakistan's electric railway and electric motor transport system. The water flow shall also be regulated, as shown in the diagram below:

Control of Water Flow Regime by Constructing Dams
▪  The construction of dams and proposed dams on sites mentioned in the table above will enhance Pakistan's water storage from 17.8 MAF (11.5 percent) to 40.5 MAF (26.3 percent). The stored water shall bring 10.64 MHa of additional land under agriculture in KP, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. This agricultural land will add PKR .0.5 MHa 5320 billion (USD 19 billion) to the national economy. 
▪ These dams will generate 21070 MW clean energy at PKR 20 per unit worth PKR 3691 billion (USD 13 billion) annually.
▪ The annual flood damage to the crop and properties and the expenditures on its rehabilitation worth 2 billion USD will be reduced to almost nil.
▪ The evaporation of these dams in northern Pakistan shall be readily available in the shape of intense precipitation in the shape of snow on the glaciers. Thus, the fast melting problem of these glaciers will come to an end.
▪The clean energy generated through these dams can be floated for a reduction in carbon emission in the REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries) market worth billions of foreign earnings.

To cater for the increasing demand for fertile agricultural lands for the growing population of Pakistan to meet their requirement for food security, accommodation, and transport, modeling and training the river Indus and its tributaries through reliable engineering structures is the need of the hour.

Modeling/Training of River Indus and its Tributaries
Pakistan, with a population of 225 million spread across its 0.8 million square km area, is the most densely populated country in the world. Of the total area, 28 percent is utilized for agriculture and habitation. However, agricultural green land diminishes daily due to conversions into housing societies, commercial buildings, factories, and roads. Additionally, 5.2 percent of the land is covered by forests. The remaining 67.8 percent comprises high snow peaks, deserts, semi-range lands, or lies under the bed of the River Indus and its tributaries. The per capita gross land measures six kanal, while per capita agriculture and habitation land amount to 1.8 kanal in Pakistan.
The bed of the River Indus is the most fertile land in Pakistan. Therefore, the human population encroaches upon the river bed during dry spells (months of November to May each year) for agriculture and residential accommodations as well as commercial buildings and during rains (months of June to September) each year. Due to natural phenomena of inundation in the River Indus and its tributaries, the crops and buildings are washed away. This encroachment of the human population, consequent to the increasing demand for food and accommodation facilities, increases the damage caused by floods yearly. It is worth mentioning that flood damages are wrongly articulated to a newly invented climate change terminology. Instead, the increase in flood damages is proportional to the rise in human population and the increase in the encroachment on river beds. History reveals that the most significant flood ever recorded in history is the flood of 1841 (Hazara Gazetteer, 1907 page), which is still unmatched by that of 1930. Also, it is scientifically proved that the floods in the world are a natural phenomenon of Rossby Waves caused on Earth, a consequence of the planetary movement. 
Therefore, to cater for the increasing demand for fertile agricultural lands for the growing population of Pakistan to meet their requirement for food security, accommodation, and transport, modeling and training the river Indus and its tributaries through reliable engineering structures is the need of the hour. 
Training and Modeling of River Indus from Karachi to Chashma
The River Indus bed down Chashma up to Karachi is 10 to 15 km wide, occupying the country's most fertile land of more than 15000 sq. km with an average gradient of one meter, which falls in 4 km from Chashma Barrage to Karachi seaport. This shallow gradient of River Indus makes it suitable for inland shipping operations as per the past practices of the Mughal and British eras. Also, the low gradient of the river Indus makes modelling and training easy. 
For modelling and training, the River Indus needs to be confined to 800 meters in width by constructing 50-meter-wide and 8-meter-high specially designed strong RCC (roller compacted concrete) embankments on both the left and right banks of the River Indus with parallel highways and electric railway lines on both the embankments as shown in the following diagrams. 

Main Physical Objectives of Training and Modeling of River Indus from Karachi to Chashma
▪ The most fertile land of more than 14000 sq. km (1.4 MHa) will be recovered from the bed of the River Indus. This land will tremendously enhance food security and add per year per Ha at PKR 0.5 million, i.e., PKR 700 billion (USD 2.5 billion) to the national economy. 
▪ The construction of the strong embankments will protect the lives and properties of millions of people who become victims of flood disasters, and the government spends billions of rupees from its resources and international donations on their rehabilitation.
▪ The railway line and highway construction on both the right bank and left embankment will double Pakistan's rail and automobile transport infrastructure facilities from Karachi to Chashma. 
▪ The modelling of the River Indus will make it suitable for inland shipping. This will result in the cheapest transportation of goods, particularly minerals, from south to north and north to south. The transportation of these goods in long vehicles and trucks is causing tremendous damage to road infrastructure. 
▪  Pakistan's per capita carbon emission will be further reduced without compromising our industrial development. 
Estimated Expenditure on Training/Modeling of River Indus
The tentatively estimated cost per km for both sides of the left and right banks of the River Indus is USD 22.22 million or PKR 4 billion. Hence, the total cost for 800 km is USD 9 billion. An investment of USD 22.3 billion is proposed for controlling the water regime flow in the River Indus, with an additional USD 9 billion allocated for modeling and training related to the river's management.
Economic Benefits of Dams (Water Storage Reservoirs) 
▪  These dams will generate 21070 MW clean energy at PKR 20 per unit worth PKR 3691 billion (USD 13 billion) per year.
▪  These dams will generate 21070 MW clean energy at PKR 20 per unit worth PKR 3691 billion (USD 13 billion) per year.
▪  Market value of 1.4 million Ha reclaimed land at PKR 2 MHa is equal to USD 10 billion. 
▪  Economic benefits from the additional land of 10.64 MHa to be irrigated for agriculture at PKR 0.5 MHa is equal to 5320 billion (USD 19 billion).   
▪  Saving in fossil fuel consumption due to 21,070 MW hydel power is equal to USD 7.25 billion in foreign exchange.
▪ Effects on snow glacier stability value is not calculated.
Subtotal =USD 62.5 billion
Cost of Modeling/Training and Water Storage of River Indus
▪  The cost for under-construction and proposed dams for controlling the River Indus water flow regime is USD 51.98 billion.
▪  The cost for River Indus training and modeling is USD 22.3 billion.
▪  Total expenditure: USD 74.28 billion (USD 15 billion per year for five years only).
Per Year Economic Benefits of Training and Modeling of River Indus
▪  The minimum economic benefits from crops and orchards to be raised on 1.4 MHa of fertile land recovered from the River Indus bed as a result of its modeling is estimated to be PKR 700 billion (USD 2.5 billion) at PKR 0.5 million per hectare.
▪ The market value of 1.4 MHa, at a minimum of PKR 2 million per hectare, is equal to PKR 2800 billion (USD 10 billion).
▪ Savings in the transportation of goods through inland shipping, railway lines, and roads are not calculated.
▪ Subtotal: USD 12.5 billion
▪ Grand total benefits for the first year upon project completion (1+2): USD 75 billion.
Estimated Expenditure on Training/Modeling of River Swat
The tentatively estimated cost per km of both sides of the left and right banks of the river is USD 16.67 million or PKR 3 billion. The total cost of 47 km is USD 1 billion. 

Estimated Outturn (Tangible Benefits) of Modeling/Training of River Swat
▪  2897 hectares of fertile land will be reclaimed from the bed of the River Swat, with the existing market rate in Swat at PKR 100 million per hectare, worth USD 1 billion.
▪  The income from the reclaimed fertile 2897 hectares of land, at PKR 1 million per hectare per year, equals USD 0.01 billion.
▪ Savings in the shape of land acquisition of 145 hectares for constructing a motorway from Chakdara to Charbagh, at the existing market rate in Swat of PKR 100 million per hectare, is worth USD 0.05 billion.
Expenditure
The cost of construction of embankments mounted with 50 feet wide, 47 km long expressway on both sides of River Swat (from Chakdara to Charbagh) is equal to USD 1 billion.
Total Cost-Benefit Ratio of Rivers Indus and Swat 
Total Expenditure
The cost of constructing the proposed dams and river training/modeling of the Rivers Indus and Swat is USD 75.28 billion, at USD 15 billion per year for five years.
Total Economic Benefits in the First Year
The training and modeling of the River Indus and Swat dams (water storage reservoirs) amount to USD 77.05 billion, with tangible economic returns expected in the first year after project completion.
Source of Funds
▪ Investment shares for Pakistani nationals, both expatriate and local, amount to USD 10 billion.
▪ Exploration under scientific management of a 1.6-million-acre commercial forest covered under regular working plans is equal to USD 2 billion.
▪ Diverting annual spending from the Benazir Income Support Program amounts to USD 1.607 billion.
▪ Diverting discretionary developmental funds from MPAs (Members of the Provincial Assembly), MNAs (Members of the National Assembly), and Senators amounts to USD 2.125 billion.
▪ Diverting the Prime Minister’s discretionary fund amounts to USD 0.164 billion.
▪ Diverting the Special Relief Fund amounts to USD 0.4 billion.
▪ Total: USD 16.298 billion
The project's cost will be recouped from its tangible economic benefits within one year. With a project life of over 100 years, the benefits are 50 times greater than its cost over this period.
In conclusion, this article underscores the urgent need to revolutionize flood risk management in Pakistan by harnessing the potential of the River Indus. The proposed ambitious project aims to reclaim vast swathes of fertile agricultural land, construct crucial infrastructure, including highways and railway tracks, and reintroduce shipping activities along the river. By strategically controlling the water flow regime through the construction of dams and modeling the river's course, the project seeks to mitigate the devastating impact of floods, enhance agricultural productivity, and generate clean energy. Furthermore, it outlines a comprehensive plan for funding and implementation, highlighting the significant economic benefits that far outweigh the initial investment. Ultimately, this endeavor holds the promise of ensuring long-term sustainability and prosperity for Pakistan's people and economy.

The writer is the Chief Conservator of Forests in the Hazara region, Abbottabad.
E-mail: [email protected]