Pakistan stands at the frontline of climate change, grappling with extreme weather and melting glaciers. Innovative initiatives like Living Indus and Recharge Pakistan offer hope, but urgent, unified action is crucial to secure a resilient future for the nation.

As the scorching heat of summer engulfs Pakistan, the urgency of the climate change issue and its severe impact on land and rivers becomes more pronounced. The country is acutely aware of the devastating effects of climate change on the planet, particularly in Pakistan. The alarm has been sounding for years, but are we making progress? Have the millions spent on global conferences yielded lasting solutions? It appears not, at least not yet.
Pakistan is among the top ten most affected countries yet has little power to change the drivers of global warming. As the country’s struggle against the impacts of climate change accelerates with increasingly erratic weather patterns, the country is again holding its breath as the monsoon season looms. We hope it won't produce floods of the scale of 2010 or 2022. Pakistan and the affected communities haven't recovered from the last big one, so another significant flood would be catastrophic. 
In early June, when concluding a two-day National Monsoon Coordination Conference and National Simulation exercise to review preparedness for the annual monsoon, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
According to the NDMA, 40 to 60 per cent more rainfall than usual is likely throughout the country during monsoon due to three weather anomalies—above normal rains, melting glaciers, and a westerly system. Syed Muhammad Tayab, who was leading the risk assessment team of the technical wing of the NDMA, said, “Abnormal rains will start from July 25 and continue into August”. He indicated that the intensity of the floods in 2024 would be only “25 per cent of the 2010 floods and 20 per cent of the extreme 2022 floods”. He also said that this year’s winter snow cover was among the lowest in the last 58 years due to higher temperatures during each summer. “Out of the total 36 vulnerable glaciers, four glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events are expected to happen anytime causing urban flooding in Ghizar and Chitral”.
These predications are still significant and worrying percentages equating to as many as 6.6 million people, thousands of homes, millions of hectares of farming land, hundreds if not thousands of schools and other infrastructure, and potentially, billions of dollars in overall damages.
Pakistan has already had the first round of disastrous rains in early 2024.  In April, the first wave of lesser floods resulted in 107 deaths, 130 injuries, damage to 464 schools and 5,000 houses, and more than 500 livestock perished nationwide. A second spell of heavy rains in late April disproportionately affected Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, causing 17 fatalities, 23 injuries and damaging 139 houses. Balochistan also experienced heavy rainfall, resulting in 21 fatalities, 25 injuries, and damage to over 2,200 houses. 

According to the NDMA, 40 to 60 per cent more rainfall than usual is likely throughout the country during monsoon due to three weather anomalies—above normal rains, melting glaciers, and a westerly system.

To add to the population's misery, a heatwave swept across the country in May 2024, with temperatures reaching the mid-40s in much of the country and crossing 50 degrees in places like Jacobabad. In many areas, the daily temperature exceeded the May average by as much as 7 degrees. One can only imagine what the rest of summer will be like. 
Meanwhile, the glaciers in the north of the country continue to melt at an alarming rate, which profoundly affects the water in Pakistan's rivers. Pakistan has 7,253 known glaciers, the largest concentration in the world, outside the polar region. They are a significant source of fresh water for the country. However, due to the rapidly increasing impacts of climate change and rising temperatures, the melting glaciers are forming glacial lakes, some of which are unstable. According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), global warming could cause 75 per cent of the Himalayan glaciers to disappear by the end of the century. This would have catastrophic implications for water in Pakistan.
The Indus River is the nation's beating heart but, sadly, is not healthy. The river, its tributaries, and the entire Indus Basin have been subject to decades of environmental abuse from human settlement.  It is one of the most polluted rivers in the world, with toxins, plastics, and other rubbish, as well as agricultural pesticides and sewerage flowing into the length of the river to the Arabian Sea.  
Ninety per cent of Pakistan's people and more than three-quarters of its economy reside in the Indus Basin, and urbanisation continues to grow adding to the burden on the river. More than 80 per cent of Pakistan's arable land is irrigated by its waters. Nine of the ten largest cities in Pakistan are situated within 50 km or less of the waters of the Indus, with the exception being Quetta. Yet, we continue to take the Indus for granted.

Out of the total 36 vulnerable glaciers, four glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events are expected to happen anytime causing urban flooding in Ghizar and Chitral.

The Indus is significantly affected by floods, especially during the monsoon season. Heavy monsoonal rains and melting glaciers lead to a surge in water flow within the Indus River. The increased volume of water causes the river to overflow its banks and submerge surrounding areas. In the floods of 2010 and 2022, a massive volume of water accumulated in the lower-lying areas of Sindh, forming inland lakes up to 100 kilometres wide, creating a new nightmare for communities who had nowhere to go. When the water finally receded, what was left behind was a toxic wasteland and millions of people trying to restart their lives.
Floods in the Indus have far-reaching impacts, affecting people and the environment. Floodwaters erode riverbanks, carrying sediment along with them. Suspended sediment can degrade water quality and harm aquatic ecosystems. Eventually, sediment settles out of the water, clogging riverbeds and affecting habitats. Floods pose a significant risk to life and livelihoods, crops, infrastructure, and food security.
How can we not be concerned about the state of the Indus and do everything possible to revive and protect it? There has to be a shift from reactive to proactive to take the hard decisions to protect our rivers and the communities in the Indus Basin. There is no one big solution that covers the entire country but there are some very promising initiatives that, if they meet their goals, are replicable. Let’s take a look at two very important initiatives, both involving the Indus River Basin.
The Living Indus Initiative was developed jointly by the Ministry of Climate Change and the United Nations in Pakistan under a directive of the Prime Minister's Committee on Climate Change. Living Indus has been described as “the country's most significant climate initiative to protect the cradle of civilisation to address the threat due to environmental degradation and anthropogenic activities, so it can continue providing water, food, and jobs to its communities.” 
The Indus River has served as the vibrant core of the social, cultural, and economic life of what is today called Pakistan for well over a documented 5,000 years. But, today, one is forced to wonder if it will be able to do so even for another 100 years. (Source: Living Indus, 2022)
The Living Indus is an expandable menu of 25 preliminary existing and future interventions, 15 related to water issues, particularly flood management, and all linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The projects focus on nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation approaches to protect, conserve, and restore the Indus Basin's natural, terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems.
According to the Living Indus research, even without accounting for climate change, the economic cost to Pakistan of poor water resource management is estimated to be USD 12 billion per annum (4 per cent of GDP), and of that degradation of the Indus Delta, another USD 2 billion. Both numbers may be underestimated given the unavailability of robust ecological and social costs. A healthy Indus would need to address the balance between the sometimes-competing needs for water quality, water quantity and Basin ecology. All evidence suggests that global climate change will exacerbate stresses on all three and the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientific studies have consistently ranked the Indus as amongst the natural systems most vulnerable to global climate change. 
The Living Indus Initiative has since gained global recognition. In February 2024, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) named Pakistan’s Living Indus Initiative which will restore more than 30 per cent of the Indus River Basin by 2030, as one of the seven UN World Restoration Flagship programmes. With its recognition as a World Restoration Flagship, the Living Indus Initiative will now be eligible for additional technical and financial UN support, bolstering its plans to restore 25 million hectares of the river basin by 2030, encompassing more than 30 per cent of Pakistan’s area.
Another very promising initiative has recently moved into the implementation stage. Recharge Pakistan is a collaboration that aims to reduce climate vulnerability through ecosystem-based adaptation and integrated flood risk management. Championed by the Ministry of Climate Change and the Federal Flood Commission under the Ministry of Water Resources, and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), this project is in collaboration with the local communities in Dera Ismail Khan, the Ramak Watershed, and the Manchar-Chakar Lehri Watershed.  

According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), global warming could cause 75 per cent of the Himalayan glaciers to disappear by the end of the century. This would have catastrophic implications for water in Pakistan.

The seven-year investment, made possible by a USD 66 million grant from the Green Climate Fund (GCF), is the fund's most significant investment in an ecosystem-based approach to flood and water resources management at the national level. It is quite an achievement for Pakistan to acquire funding from GCF in the highly competitive global process. In addition to the GCF funding, the project is supported through a collective USD 12 million investment and technical and other support from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Coca-Cola Foundation and World Wildlife Fund-Pakistan.
Recharge Pakistan seeks to create a paradigm shift in the country’s flood and water resource management efforts by establishing proofs of concept for ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and green infrastructure interventions in the Indus Basin. The project will reinforce this shift by validating the cost efficiency, benefits, and sustainability of these adaptation and resilience measures.
The project brief 'envisions ecosystem-based adaptation contributing towards better climate resilience, water and food security, and sustainable livelihoods in Pakistan. The actions proposed under Recharge Pakistan are primarily designed to keep more floodwater from reaching agricultural and community lands by slowing run-off and making use of wetlands to hold and absorb it.'
The core interventions described in the Recharge Pakistan briefing documents include:
▪ Demonstrate the effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure. By restoring degraded forests in DI Khan district, restoring flow paths in Ramak Watershed and Manchar Lake (Qambar Shahdadkot District), and building green infrastructure projects in DI Khan, Ramak, Manchar, and Chakar Lehri, maximize flood reduction benefits to vulnerable communities.

In February 2024, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) named Pakistan’s Living Indus Initiative which will restore more than 30 per cent of the Indus River Basin by 2030, as one of the seven UN World Restoration Flagship programmes.

▪ Create an enabling environment for climate action in Pakistan. Promote integrated strategies, planning, and policymaking that make ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure a vital part of Pakistan's National Water Policy, National Adaptation Plan, and Provincial Adaptation Plans. With well-documented procedures backed by a rigorous scientific base, the Government of Pakistan can channel future investments into ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure interventions to complement its existing grey infrastructure network.
▪ Enhance community resilience in Pakistan's Indus Basin. Introduce farmers to agricultural practices that can better withstand future climate scenarios and support small businesses in providing alternative revenue-generating opportunities. The project will also reduce ecosystem degradation from traditional livelihoods directly dependent upon natural resources.
The project's interventions will directly benefit over 600,000 people and indirectly benefit close to 7 million people. 
The climate scenario for Pakistan is truly alarming. The Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024 in its section on Climate Change, highlights disturbing projections:
▪ Pakistan's projected temperature increase is expected to exceed the global average. Temperature increases of 1.4°-3.7°C are projected by the 2060s and up to 6.0°C by the 2090s.
▪ Mean annual precipitation changes are uncertain, with projected monthly rainfall changes ranging from a decrease of 20 per cent to an increase of 41 per cent by the 2090s. There is an increasing trend in rainfall over the Upper Indus Basin and a decreasing trend in the Lower Indus Basin.
▪ Water availability per capita is projected to decrease to an alarmingly low level by 2025.
▪ Significant declines in the yields of major crops such as wheat and rice are expected. This will severely impact food security. 
▪ Sea levels are forecast to increase by 30-80 cm by 2100, putting low-lying coastal regions, including Karachi, at significant risk.
▪ The Indus Delta will face increased seawater intrusion, affecting freshwater sources and ecological balance.
▪ Higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as cyclones, floods, and droughts, are anticipated.
▪ Decreases in glacier volume and snow cover will alter the seasonal flow patterns of the Indus River System and increase the formation and outburst of glacial lakes.
Economic and Social Impacts
▪ The annual expected damage from riverine floods by 2050 is projected to surge by 47 per cent (RCP 4.5) and 49 per cent (RCP 8.5), respectively.
▪ The fraction of the population exposed to heatwaves yearly is expected to increase by 32 per cent (RCP 4.5) and 36 per cent (RCP 8.5) by 2050, respectively.
▪ Labour productivity is projected to decline across the board because of escalating heat stress by 7 per cent (RCP 4.5) and 10 per cent (RCP 8.5), respectively.
▪ Climate change will likely severely impact the agriculture sector, increasing pressure on food production and access. For example, by 2050, the annual mean wheat yield will decline by 1 per cent (RCP 4.5) and 2.5 per cent (RCP 8.5), respectively.
▪ Precipitation changes and declining water availability could damage riverine ecology, impair water security, and affect hydropower production.
▪ Sea-level rise will contribute to the further salinization of soils and coastal erosion, and inundation will harm fisheries and aquaculture.
▪ Air and water pollution will aggravate human health, especially those living in vulnerable areas.
To quote the Pakistan National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2023 which provides a framework for implementing adaptation strategies, promoting inclusivity, and facilitating stakeholder collaboration, “with the clock ticking, and global inaction on Paris commitments to reduce emissions stalemated, and no pledged transformational funding available, Pakistan stands at a defining moment, where it must stocktake and build on stressed resources to catalyse a resilient and equitable future.”

The actions proposed under Recharge Pakistan are primarily designed to keep more floodwater from reaching agricultural and community lands by slowing run-off and making use of wetlands to hold and absorb it.

Pakistan faces a myriad of climate challenges and extreme weather events. On the one hand, the rivers are likely to be inundated with an increasingly erratic monsoon, melting glaciers, and the ensuing flood waters in the Indus and tributaries–the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Conversely, the country suffers from a water shortage. The sea levels are rising and negatively impacting the Indus Delta. But let’s not forget about droughts that also affect much of the country regularly. The increasing temperatures will exacerbate the threat. 
The challenges for government at all levels and all stakeholders cannot be put on the backburner. The need for solutions is now. Climate change is the key issue but not the only reason for the devastation caused by floods. Solutions require whole-of-government and society solutions to understand what needs to be done. Water resource management, agriculture planning to develop resilient practices and crops, coastal protection measures, flood-resistant infrastructure and upgrading of barrages, urban planning, disaster preparedness, and policies to build economic resilience are all part of the equation. It’s time for all stakeholders to step up to the climate change challenge.

The writer is an Australian Disaster Management and Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Advisor who lives in Islamabad. She consults for government and UN agencies and has also worked with ERRA and NDMA.
E-mail: [email protected]