Successful agricultural transformations in China, Brazil, and Egypt offer valuable lessons, while Pakistan holds untapped potential in cultivable wastelands and livestock production for export. Embracing modern, climate-smart farming practices under initiatives such as Green Pakistan can secure a prosperous and sustainable future for the nation.

Over the course of Pakistan's history, the agriculture sector's share in the country's GDP has witnessed a steady and notable decline. Back in 1949-50, this sector contributed approximately 60 percent to the nation's GDP, signifying its pivotal role in the economy at that time. However, as evident from the data presented in Fig. 1, the agriculture sector's significance has gradually waned, and it now accounts for only about 23 percent of the country's GDP.

The rapid expansion of the population is exerting significant pressure on food supplies, which, unfortunately, are growing at a slow pace. Consumption consistently exceeds production, leading to an evident imbalance. Fig. 2 presents a comprehensive comparison of production and consumption patterns since independence, alongside projections for 2029-30, emphasizing the urgent need to address food security challenges and implement sustainable agricultural practices to meet the escalating demands of the growing population.

Further, per capita agricultural land availability is on a dwindling trend and is supposed to be a meager 0.06 hectares (ha) per capita by 2029-30, as shown in Fig. 3.
Fig. 4 showcases a concise overview of the trends in food production, cultivated area, crop yield, and population growth since independence.

Green Revolution Era 
The period following 1965 is often referred to as the Green Revolution era, marked by a significant breakthrough in agriculture. From 1967 to 1992, there was a remarkable three-fold increase in the output of food grains, reflecting the transformative impact of various agricultural advancements during this time.
The Green Revolution era in Pakistan was a transformative period that brought about significant advancements in agriculture. The introduction of high yielding varieties, farm mechanization with the introduction of tractors, establishment of fertilizer manufacturing plants, development of water reservoirs, and training of agricultural scientists collectively contributed to a surge in agricultural productivity and self-sufficiency.
The Last 2-3 Decades
Over the last two to three decades, the agricultural sector in Pakistan has faced stagnation and a lack of significant reforms. This lack of development has posed serious challenges to food security, making Pakistan a net food importer. The country had to incur colossal foreign exchange expenses to meet its food requirements, indicating a growing dependence on external sources for sustenance.
Present Scenario
In the present situation, the gap between wheat production and domestic requirements has become a pressing concern. With a rapidly increasing population and rising per capita food consumption, the demand for staple crops like wheat has outpaced local production. This has led to a widening disparity between supply and demand, further exacerbating the food security challenges faced by the country. Pakistan is currently short of 4.5 million tons of wheat for the ongoing season, as enumerated in the tables below.

Only 37 percent of the promising/approved seed requirement is available, and the remaining 63 percent of seed farmers use is home-grown. Further, only 8 percent of the seed used is hybrid, and the remaining 92 percent is synthetic, having a lesser output and being susceptible to climate adversities. Crop-wise seed requirement vis-à-vis availability is worked out in the table given below.

Global Agricultural Success Stories: China, Brazil, and Egypt
The three case studies presented below showcase the remarkable success stories of China, Brazil, and Egypt in agriculture. China's cotton production revolution, spearheaded by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, has been a game-changer. Brazil's strategic utilization of cultivable wastelands has fueled export growth, while Egypt's ambitious Toshka project has been a driving force behind agricultural expansion and prosperity.

China's Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps
China's cotton production has witnessed a remarkable boost, with a significant contribution from the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC). XPCC has been pivotal in developing millions of acres of land in Xinjiang, contributing approximately 40 percent of China's cotton production.

XPCC, or Bingtuan, is a state-owned entity established by the Chinese government. Its primary objective is to develop and cultivate vast land areas in Xinjiang, an autonomous region in northwest China. The XPCC has transformed vast land into thriving cotton fields through strategic planning and large-scale initiatives.

Pakistan possesses abundant livestock resources, with approximately 220 million heads of cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, and camels available in the country. 

Brazil's Agricultural Transformation
Brazil's agricultural sector has undergone a remarkable transformation spearheaded by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa). Embrapa's efforts have led to a significant expansion of cultivated land and a remarkable six-fold increase in agricultural output, effectively turning Brazil into a net exporter of agricultural products. 
It went from a net importer to a net exporter of soybean, corn, cotton, sugar, ethanol, and coffee. The country's success as a major agricultural exporter has strengthened its position in international markets and established it as a formidable competitor to the United States in the agricultural sector.

Egypt's Toshka Project and Agricultural Expansion
Egypt's Toshka project, steered by the military, aims to reclaim and cultivate approximately 600,000 acres of land surrounding the Toshka depressions. As part of this endeavor, the state has set a goal of planting 2.5 million unique Arab date palms within the project area. Egypt has successfully cultivated 217,700 acres of agricultural land within the Toshka project, which yields an impressive annual output of around 550,000 tons of wheat. This large-scale initiative represents a significant effort to expand Egypt's agricultural capabilities and enhance food production.

With a potential milk production of 68 million tons and domestic consumption of 55 million tons, substantial room exists for Pakistan’s value addition and increasing milk exports. 

Pakistan’s Future Potential
Cultivable Wastelands. Pakistan holds tremendous agricultural growth and development potential, especially in its vast expanses of cultivable wastelands. Across various provinces, millions of acres of land lie untapped, presenting a significant opportunity for the country's agricultural sector.
▪    Punjab: 1.0 million acres in Thal and Cholistan
▪    Sindh: 0.3 million acres in Thar and other areas
▪    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 1.1 million acres
▪   Balochistan: 0.7 million acres in Kech, Khuzdar and  Jaffarabad/Sibi Plain
Livestock Production and Export Potential. Pakistan possesses abundant livestock resources, with approximately 220 million heads of cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, and camels available in the country. This vast livestock population presents a significant opportunity for meat production, including poultry, with a potential of 5.5 million tons. By capitalizing on this potential, Pakistan can explore exporting meat products to international markets, such as the GCC countries, China, and others, thereby enhancing its foreign exchange earnings.
In addition to meat, Pakistan also has a significant exportable surplus of milk, amounting to 13 million tons. With a potential milk production of 68 million tons and domestic consumption of 55 million tons, substantial room exists for value addition and increasing milk exports.
FonGrow’s Success Story
The Government of Pakistan is offering incentives to promote corporate-sized farms. FonGrow, with its ambitious vision, aims to establish large-scale corporate farms across the country. These farms are dedicated to enhancing food production and implementing sustainable water management practices, conducting research and developing hybrid seeds, providing agri-services, supporting livestock and dairy farming, and engaging in food processing and distribution activities.

Spanning across 4000 acres, Khanewal farm is located in Southern Punjab and serves as a test bed for high-grade, high-yielding, smart, and mechanized farming in Pakistan. After thorough planning and surveying, the Khanewal Farm is now self-sustaining, with the first harvest of corn approaching.

Current Projects
Khanewal Farm-1. Spanning across 4000 acres, Khanewal farm is located in Southern Punjab and serves as a test bed for high-grade, high-yielding, smart, and mechanized farming in Pakistan. After thorough planning and surveying, the Khanewal Farm is now self-sustaining, with the first harvest of corn approaching.
Khanewal Farm-2. Spread across 600 acres; it will be a unique farm as the first lateral high-efficiency irrigation system will be installed here.
Nukerji Farm. It is a pioneering 2,500-acre agricultural farm of the Fauji Group, which is located in Thatta, Sindh. The farm is under massive revitalization to meet the requirement of seed multiplication and production of export-oriented agro/livestock commodities.
To conclude, mechanized, modern, and climate-smart farming practices are crucial for Pakistan to ensure food security and capitalize on the potential for earning foreign exchange through agricultural exports. Embracing advanced technologies and sustainable farming methods will boost agricultural productivity and contribute to the country’s economic growth and stability.
The Green Pakistan initiative presents a distinctive opportunity for all stakeholders to unite and collaborate toward building a sustainable future. Working together under the Green Pakistan umbrella, the country can achieve a balance between economic development and environmental sustainability, securing a prosperous future for generations to come.

The writer is a member of the staff.
E-mail: [email protected]