Consensus on addressing water scarcity needs bold whole-of-government, whole-of-nation approaches and national leadership to ensure that water will not become the most dangerous threat to national and international security. Solving this challenge should be a top priority for Pakistan.

Consensus is a goal rarely achieved when negotiating with disparate groups. A shared understanding of the consequences of action and inaction on any contentious topic is similarly rare. Water scarcity is one of the most severe global challenges of a generation, but anything resembling a consensus on dealing with this existential threat remains elusive. Yet despite the national and international security implications of water scarcity, the absence of focus on attaining accord and taking bold action should cause concern for everyone.
Water is generally classified globally as a non-traditional threat. However, many analysts now question if it is becoming more than that. That is a good question. That growing water scarcity is a threat to resilience and stability would seem to be a 'no-brainer'. In simplest terms, without water security, there is no food security. Without either, communities must compete for precious life-saving resources, possibly leading to conflict. Some have no option other than to leave their homes and villages, often in significant numbers, to flee to cities and sometimes across borders. Many lose their lives as they try to find safety. Mass migrations also create new problems and tensions for host communities and countries that struggle to cope under the weight of a substantial influx of new inhabitants. 
Collaborative action at all levels of government for assessing the national threat level and developing integrated, effective water management is urgent for every country. Pakistan is no exception.
Pakistan is already aware of the water scarcity and national security nexus. Pakistan's National Security Policy (NSP) 2022-2026, a public-facing document published by the National Security Division (NSD), identifies the traditional and non-traditional threats to national security. The NSP frequently mentions climate and water issues and includes a section providing policy direction on Climate Resilience and Water Security with a recommendation for a climate-resilient Pakistan, prioritising climate adaptation, sustainable water management, and disaster preparedness. 
The stated objective that follows is clear: mainstream climate adaptation and response, particularly in socio-economically vulnerable regions, to steer Pakistan towards climate resilient development. Ensure a cohesive national response to looming water scarcity through improved water storage capacity, sustainable water management, and protecting Pakistan's transboundary water rights. Strengthen robust disaster preparedness, management, and response mechanisms. 

Water scarcity is not a single-country issue. As many as two billion people live in areas that are water scarce. Alarming, the global water demand will outstrip supply by as much as 40 per cent by 2030. These statistics should be a wake-up call for the world. 

This objective raises a strong point. If water is a national security issue, it requires federal leadership and administration, but with the full participation of the provinces. Federal Minister for Climate Change has strongly advocated for a national approach to Pakistan’s extensive climate challenges and reached out to the provinces, emphasising the need for comprehensive environmental security policies in the national security framework. However, the Ministry of Water Resouces is primarily responsible for water management. But climate change and water require a combined approach, as seen in other countries, so these two Ministries each have an essential role. Other Ministries including Planning, Finance, Food Security, Energy, Inter-provincial Coordination, Economic Affairs Division, Industry, and Defense, also have significant relevance.
The Ministry of Water Resources launched the National Water Policy (NWP) 2018, focusing on an integrated approach to dealing with Pakistan's diverse challenges of water security matters. The NWP notes that it provides a 'national framework within which the provinces can develop their master plans for sustainable development and management of water resources. Water resources are a national responsibility, but irrigation, agriculture, rural and urban water supply, environment, and other water-related sub-sectors are provincial subjects.'  
Therein lies the problem of managing water. There is fragmentation between federal and provincial responsibilities. Although comprehensive and a significant step forward in defining the challenges, the NWP does not appear to have a clear, integrated strategy for implementation and control as a national priority, and, to date, progress seems to have been slow.
Meantime, nature is striking back against human neglect of the environment. Climate change and global warming are escalating rapidly. Climate change is not the sole cause of water scarcity but exacerbates it. Concerns about the nexus between water scarcity, peace, and security are growing globally. Water disputes leading to potential conflict have existed throughout history. Nevertheless, in the modern world, with climate change biting at the heels of a burgeoning global population and growing demands for an increasingly scarce resource, governments cannot ignore the risks. Nor can the United Nations (UN). 
In response to growing concerns by member states about the non-traditional security threats posed by water scarcity, the UN Security Council has recently turned its attention to the relationship between water and conflict within and between countries. In October 2018, a meeting organised by the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Security Council Members and UN Member States convened on water, peace, and security. The goal was to explore ways for the UN system, Member State partners and other organizations, to address water scarcity as a root cause of conflict. One wonders why it took so long at this level to get serious about addressing this nexus. 
Other countries are addressing water scarcity in their national security strategies though not all are publicly available. In 2022, the United States government announced it would approach water scarcity as a national security issue. In a speech for the launch of the White House Action Plan on Global Water Security, Vice President Kamala Harris said, "Water scarcity is a global problem, and it must be met with a global solution."  The strategy calls on the U.S. to decrease instability caused by dwindling global water supplies; an issue made more severe by climate change. Vice President Harris said, “Many of our most fundamental national security interests depend on water security.”  
Another recent report from the U.S. National Intelligence Council, Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040, also identifies the growing risks of water scarcity, including conflict and mass migration. The report states, "We judge that transboundary tensions probably will increase over shared surface and groundwater basins as increased weather variability exacerbates preexisting or triggers new water insecurity in many parts of the world. Forecasted climate change effects on local and regional weather—including loss of glaciers and more frequent and extreme droughts and floods—will make water management, resource allocation, and service provision more complex and difficult, and probably more contentious. Although scientific forecasts are not precise enough to pinpoint likely flashpoints, we assess that several areas are at high risk.” The report identifies eleven countries of concern that face multiple water scarcity issues, including transboundary supply, warming temperatures, increasing extreme weather events, and ineffective water governance. These countries of concern include Pakistan.
Pakistan is not the only country with a complete spectrum of water scarcity issues and a dependence on transboundary water agreements. It is one country amongst many through which major rivers flow and create contentious transboundary water issues. Disputes exist over water rights between countries along the Nile (Egypt, Ethiopia, Burundi, Tanzania, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Sudan); the Mekong (China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand; the Zambezi (Angola, Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique); the Euphrates-Tigris (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq); the Amy Darya (shared by Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan), and others.  Each has the potential to create political instability and conflict should transboundary disputes get out of hand. Even Singapore, a tiny but prosperous tropical island state, remains substantially dependent on water from neighbouring Malaysia. However, it has invested hugely in alternative water solutions to reduce dependence on transboundary needs, giving what the Singapore Government refers to as 'four taps' of water.
Pakistan is amongst the most water-stressed on earth. Rivers and groundwater continue to be threatened by lack of care, loss of surface water, depletion of aquifers, impacts of climate change, and a belligerent neighbour. Nearly 80 per cent of the Indus Water Basin originates outside Pakistan, making protecting transboundary watercourses a national security imperative. 
Transboundary water rights, enshrined in the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), are a matter of sensitivity and frequent concern. Should, for any reason, the tense relationship between India and Pakistan disintegrate into a conflict of any sort, the grim reality would be that India could if it chose to do so, block the flow of water to the rivers in Pakistan. That would have catastrophic implications.
Pakistan's population numbers continue to expand dramatically. The latest numbers from the 2023 Census in May indicated a population of 249.5 million, excluding Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). That is an additional 5 million people yearly since the last census. Consider what that means: extra pressure on cities, housing, utilities, agriculture, loss of rural land to urbanisation, water, food, education, sanitation, and health facilities. If the country already struggles with massive water problems and challenging economic conditions, things will only worsen with such additional pressures. 
Pakistan is one of the most highly vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, and the situation is worsening. In the northern areas, global warming is melting glaciers and causing glacial lake outburst floods. Monsoon seasons and massive floods have become more frequent and deadly. Conversely, droughts bite in parts of the country with alarming regularity.
The Indus Basin defines most of today's Pakistan, from the mountains and glaciers of the north to the Arabian Sea. The Indus is mentioned in ancient and modern history and literature and depicted in early artworks. Civilisations have come and gone for thousands of years. However, the most recent era of civilisation has done the Indus incalculable harm. Ninety per cent of the population lives in the Indus Basin. The Indus and its tributaries irrigate eighty per cent of arable land. The wetlands and wildlife are diverse, but their survival is now fragile. Three-quarters of the country's economy originates from within the Indus Basin. 
However, the Indus River system is also one of the world's most polluted and seriously neglected. Development is frequently environmentally unfriendly and chaotic and impedes the rivers. Sewerage, waste, plastics, and toxins–including arsenic and many others–threaten to overwhelm this most precious resource and negatively affect the population and sustainability of the entire Indus Basin.
Finding solutions is not only for governments. The expertise and contribution of others is essential. The United Nations Secretary-General has strongly advocated for addressing climate change and support for Pakistan. However, the United Nations' work on climate change, pollution, and biodiversity has, although worthy individually, been a mixed bag of disconnected, disparate initiatives, including in Pakistan. Although initiatives support host governments in alignment with the needs, projects often compete and sometimes fail to meet their objectives after the funding expires. This recurring problem called for a new way of working.
After significant research and consultations on how to work as one in Pakistan, the Living Indus Initiative was born to unite activities under one umbrella to consolidate the approach with host governments. The Living Indus Initiative is a forward-thinking plan conceived by the United Nations Resident Coordinator's Office (RCO) in Pakistan, in partnership with the Climate Change Ministry, to align activities related to the Indus Basin. 
Following extensive country-wide consultations, the RCO team developed a detailed report on the Indus Basin with a far-reaching strategy to be led by the Ministry of Climate Change for the restoration and ecological health of the Indus as a living river. 
The Living Indus is an expandable menu of 25 preliminary existing and future interventions, 15 related to water issues, particularly flood management, and all linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The projects focus on nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation approaches to protect, conserve, and restore the Indus Basin's natural, terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems. The Minister for Climate Change, announced in September 2022 that parliament had approved Living Indus as the country's most significant climate initiative to protect the cradle of civilisation to address the threat due to environmental degradation and anthropogenic activities, so it can continue providing water, food, and jobs to its communities. 
Although comprehensive, it does not yet address all issues but provides an excellent foundation for working towards consensus on a new approach to protecting critical water sources. While it does not mention the nexus with national security, the links between peace and security are obvious. Combined funding estimates could be as high as USD 17 billion, but this would be nothing compared to the benefits to the country resulting from the implementation. The Climate Change Minister showcased the Living Indus Initiative to a global audience at COP 27 in Sharm El-Sheik in November 2022 as part of Pakistan's significant efforts in confronting climate change. Pakistan's Climate change adaptation will now primarily focus on managing, recharging, and conserving water. 
Some climate and water analysts point to the devolution of specific responsibilities to the provinces under the 18th Amendment as a potential inhibitor to the success of Living Indus and other collaborative water security initiatives. However, there is nothing unique about devolved power-sharing systems between the centre and the provinces or states. It is common across many countries. It cannot be an excuse for inaction. Still, success depends on having formal national-level legislative and administrative mechanisms in place and with the full participation of all provincial governments.
What is particularly interesting about the philosophy of Living Indus is the similarity with other countries that manage water issues around single-basin strategies. For this, Pakistan's policymakers can find an excellent example of a single-basin system in Australia, which also has a devolved system of some powers to the states, an agricultural economy, and competing inter-state/provincial priorities for scarce water. 
Like Pakistan, Australia is also a country with significant water security issues, droughts, flooding rains, and the impacts of climate change. However, there, the comparisons diverge. The population is around one-tenth of Pakistan’s, so in that way, it is not comparable. Australia is more fortunate than Pakistan because it is not dependent on the transboundary water flow. However, it faces other water-related issues that could affect its national security.
Australia's largest water resource, the Murray-Darling River System, flows down southeastern Australia, with the two converging eponymous rivers covering a little over 3,600 kilometres, slightly more than the entire length of the Indus. Twenty other major rivers feed into the Murray Darling Basin, contributing to a catchment area of more than one million square kilometres, almost twice that of the Indus Basin. It covers four states (provinces) and the Australian Capital Territory (similar to Islamabad), all of which have competing priorities for water for agriculture, industry, and human consumption. 
The Australian Federal Government passed the Water Act in 2007 to provide the legislative framework to ensure the Murray-Darling Basin will always be managed in the national interest rather than, as previously, by individual states. Under the Water Act, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, a federal independent expertise-based statutory authority, was established to manage the Basin in an integrated and sustainable way. Annual corporate plans of the Authority are considered and approved by the Murray-Darling Basin Ministerial Council (comprising relevant Commonwealth and State Ministers) before final submission to the Federal Minister for Water. 
The other good example from Australia is that the federal key portfolios of climate change, energy, environment, water, heritage, and environmental science and research combine under one federal department. The department has two Ministers–Climate Change, Energy, and Environment and Water and an Assisting Minister. The large and diverse portfolio includes agencies, statutory and non-statutory advisors and industry. Combining such important interlinked portfolios is the comprehensive approach required to bring all stakeholders to one table with a unified objective to benefit the nation.
What works for one country doesn't necessarily work elsewhere. However, as the world struggles to deal with the security implications of rapidly escalating water scarcity, learning from others, sharing, and adopting proven strategies are helpful. There is no time to lose as a water catastrophe looms large. Consensus on addressing water scarcity needs bold whole-of-government, whole-of-nation approaches and national leadership to ensure that water will not become the most dangerous threat to national and international security. Solving this challenge should be a top priority for Pakistan. 

The writer is an Australian Disaster Management and Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Advisor who lives in Islamabad. She consults for Government and UN agencies and has previously worked at both ERRA and NDMA. 
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