The combined impact of COVID-19 and the 2022 floods reversed Pakistan's poverty reduction efforts, forcing nine million into poverty and leading to 4.3 million job losses. Furthermore, food security declined, dropping from 2.4 percent to 1.8 percent. This decline, along with a 4.2 percent decrease in SDG 2 progress from 20.2 percent in 2015-2019 to the following year, underscored the significant setbacks faced by the country.
The primary purpose of sustainable development goals (SDGs) is to create a just and equitable world. However, reaching this point in history has not been without suffering, whether due to skin color discrimination in some regions or being born into economically disadvantaged circumstances in others. Women, children, and the elderly are among the most vulnerable to injustices, whether man-made or inflicted by nature. Those at the top, possessing monetary wealth, mental and physical power, often exploit those at the bottom.
To curb this volatile tendency, international institutions for sustainable development, such as the United Nations (UN), were established. While the UN lacks legal authority to enforce human rights mandates on states, its role in raising awareness and monitoring countries in this regard has significantly contributed to creating a more civilized world. Various UN programs serve as cornerstones for maintaining global adherence to the principles of decent living that every individual deserves, regardless of circumstance. This overarching governance structure represents a critical boundary, beyond which lies an anarchic world.
On September 25, 2015, 193 member countries of the United Nations decided to adopt the '2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals' with the determination to work collectively for the betterment of the world. The SDG framework includes 17 goals, 169 targets, and 247 indicators, replacing the Millennium Development Goals.
The SDGs are structured around five Ps—People, Planet, Prosperity, Peace, and Partnership. Progress in one 'P' is supported by progress in the others. The initial SDGs aimed at eliminating poverty, hunger, ensuring good health, quality education, access to clean water and sanitation, and promoting gender equality, addressing people's basic rights and needs. All SDGs are interlinked, and progress in one area reflects on the others.
Sustainability differs from development; in the case of the former, no reform is valuable if it is detrimental to future generations. On the other hand, development that brings prosperity today may turn out to be a source of misery in the future, as has happened in the case of nuclear plants. Therefore, 'sustainable development' is the only approach that can preserve the planet's future.
The term 'sustainable development' was first used in the Brundtland Commission Report entitled 'Our Common Future,' and it was defined as 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.'
Pakistan’s SDG Status
Pakistan’s first SDGs Status Report for 2021 was published by the Federal SDGs Support Unit under the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives. The report uses 2014-15 data as the baseline value to identify progress on 133 SDG indicators. The overall assessment in the report characterizes Pakistan’s progress on the SDGs as 'modest.'
First, it was COVID-19, and then the 2022 floods wreaked havoc on the country, setting Pakistan's progress back. Although Pakistan had managed to lift 9.3 million people out of poverty, these gains were reversed by 2022. According to the Post Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA) report, the floods affected 33 million people, with approximately nine million people falling into poverty.
At the federal level, the SDGs have three implementation wings—one at the Prime Minister's Office, another at the Parliament House led by the speaker, and the third at the Planning Commission. The first two offices are generously funded, with an annual allocation of Rs. 30 billion dedicated to the Prime Minister’s SDG programs and Rs. 12.5 billion for providing clean drinking water and electricity for all.
A country’s sustainability is directly related to economic growth, i.e., providing the private sector with an enabling environment to create job opportunities that lead to wealth creation. Economists also consider the rate of population growth in relation to the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A higher population growth rate than GDP growth signifies a negative trend, leading to a shrinking middle class and a high percentage of the low-income population.
Some reasons for this abysmal downgrading include flood-induced economic losses, foreign exchange challenges, tighter macroeconomic policies, and external challenges such as the Ukraine War.
The World Bank, in its Pakistan Development Update-2023, narrates: “In the absence of public transfers that cover income losses or mitigate the impact of higher prices, poverty measured at the lower middle-income poverty line (USD 3.65 per day in 2017 per capita) is projected to increase to 37.27 in FY23, pushing an additional 3.9 million people into poverty as compared to FY22.” The report added, “The depth and severity of poverty have also increased.”
The recently launched Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI) represents a significant step towards modernizing agricultural practices in Pakistan. It serves as the cornerstone of the forthcoming Green Revolution, accompanied by the introduction of the Land Information and Management System (LIMS). Together, these LIMS and GPI initiatives provide an opportunity to transition agriculture into a corporate model, fostering economic revival.
Last year's flooding significantly impacted the agriculture sector, making it even more challenging to acquire essential inputs in the first half of 2022-23. In the aftermath of large-scale manufacturing shrinking by 3.7 percent due to tighter monetary policies and import restrictions, the inefficiencies stemming from the agriculture sector added new layers of poverty. The services sector did not escape unscathed either, as thousands of startups and small businesses exited the field due to the rising cost of finance and dwindling consumer confidence.
The recently launched Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI) represents a significant step towards modernizing agricultural practices in Pakistan. It serves as the cornerstone of the forthcoming Green Revolution, accompanied by the introduction of the Land Information and Management System (LIMS). Together, these LIMS and GPI initiatives provide an opportunity to transition agriculture into a corporate model, fostering economic revival.
Corporate agriculture offers substantial potential for vertical integration, efficient supply chain management, and expanded marketing opportunities. Corporate entities have the capability to engage in customized production contracts. Priority should be given to producing goods that can substitute imports, such as oilseeds, soybeans, and pulses, while also focusing on generating exportable surpluses in products like maize, rice, wheat, fruits, vegetables, hay, and silage.
Progress on Sustainable Development Goals
SDG 1: No Poverty
The international poverty line is defined as living on USD 2.15 per day, updated from the previous poverty line of USD 1.90 in 2015.
From 2015 until 2019, Pakistan steadily moved towards achieving the 'No Poverty' target and lifted 9.3 million people out of poverty. However, the COVID-19 pandemic undid this achievement and reversed the progress in this regard.
SDG 2: Zero Hunger
As poverty reared its head, so did the onslaught of hunger. More people started sleeping on empty stomachs. More children faced stunting due to lack of food. More anemic mothers gave birth to undernourished children. Undernourishment declined from 20.2 percent in 2015 to 16 percent in 2019.
SDG 3: Good Health and Wellbeing
With undernourishment still at 16 percent, it means that Pakistan’s progress in this sector has been slow but steady. The number of mothers dying during pregnancy and childbirth reduced by 32.6 percent from 2007 to 2019. Births attended by skilled health personnel increased by 10 percent in the five years from 2013 to 2018. National vaccination coverage improved by 11.5 percent from 2013-2018.
SDG 4: Quality Education
The primary school completion rate stagnated at 67 percent in the previous five years from 2015 to 2020. The national literacy rate remained at 60 percent in the same period.
SDG 5: Gender Equality
The presence of women in managerial positions (SDG indicator 5.5.2) doubled between 2015 (2.7 percent) and 2019 (4.53 percent). Violence against women reduced by 5.3 percent from 18 percent in 2012-2013 to 13.6 percent in 2017-2018 nationwide. Previously, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan recorded the highest rates of physical violence against women (31 percent) but observed a decline from 2013-2018 to 23.4 percent and 34.6 percent, respectively.
SDG 6: Improved Access to Clean Water and Sanitation
Improvement has been registered at the national and provincial levels. Drinkable water is now available to 94 percent of the country’s population. Access to improved drinking water in Balochistan has risen by 17 percent from 2015 to 2020.
Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
Pakistan has significantly improved its renewable energy capacity, increasing it by more than four times between 2015 and 2019. Nationwide reliance on clean cooking fuel also increased to 47 percent in 2018-2019.
Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
The economy witnessed a significant slowdown, with the annual growth rate of real GDP per capita declining from 2.04 percent in 2014-2015 to -3.36 percent in the fiscal year 2019-2020.
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
The proportion of small-scale industries in the total industry value added increased to 10.5 percent in 2019-2020, up from 8.4 percent in 2014-2015, despite the overall adverse effects of COVID-19 during the same period.
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
Income inequality was reduced by two percent from 2016-2019.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
There was a 7 percent decline in the proportion of the urban population living in slums and informal settlements, with inadequate housing decreasing from 45 percent in 2014 to 38 percent in 2018.
SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
Pakistan has been complying with the Basel Convention as required under SDG 12.
SDG 13: Climate Action
Pakistan has adopted and implemented national disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies in line with the Sendai Framework on DRR, with a 2020 index score of 0.8, an improvement in 2018 when it was 0.4. However, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew by 375.03 million tons in 2016, a 2.5 percent increase from 2015.
SDG 14: Life Below Water
Pakistan maintained the proportion of fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels at 30 percent between 2015 and 2020.
SDG 15: Life on Land
Despite urbanization and population growth, Pakistan’s forest area as a proportion of total land has remained unchanged, at around 5 percent from 2015-2020.
SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions
Though the report has marked the area as one of the progressing units, the reality is that Pakistan has gone several percent down in building peace, dispensing justice, and developing strong institutions.
SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
Pakistan has shown improvement in transforming to a digital system. Fixed internet broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants increased by 20 percent in the three years from 2017-2020.
Post-flood Status
Asia and the Pacific SDG Report 2023, launched this year, paints a dismal future for the region's people as it falls short of the preparation to achieve the SDGs by 2030. Because of insufficient resources and misplaced priorities, the Asia-Pacific region will miss 90 percent of the 118 targets by 2030. Individual analysis of each country's progress on SDGs has not been provided. An overall assessment is deemed adequate. Among South Asian countries, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Nepal have surpassed regional averages since 2015, but Pakistan is not among them.
First, it was COVID-19, and then the 2022 floods wreaked havoc on the country, setting Pakistan's progress back. Although Pakistan had managed to lift 9.3 million people out of poverty, these gains were reversed by 2022. According to the Post Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA) report, the floods affected 33 million people, with approximately nine million people falling into poverty. The report also mentions that 4.3 million people lost their jobs or experienced disruptions in their work-related activities, further contributing to the ranks of the newly impoverished.
Another area that experienced a setback was food security. According to the aforementioned report, the population of the food-secure segment declined from 2.4 percent in 2018-2019 to 1.8 percent in the following year. Correspondingly, there was a decline of 4.2 percent against SDG 2, dropping from 20.2 percent during 2015-2019.
Regarding the PDNA estimate, 4.4 million acres of agricultural land were damaged, and 0.8 million livestock perished. Sindh and Balochistan were the hardest-hit regions, contributing 72 percent and 21 percent to the total value of damage and losses registered. In Sindh, the recorded expected loss was approximately 2.3 million tons of rice. The flood occurred during the middle of the growing season and resulted in an overall loss of 1.8 million tons, which accounts for 80 percent of the expected crop production. In the case of sugar cane, Sindh lost 60 percent of its production.
Additionally, more than 35 percent of girls' schools were damaged by the floods, leaving over two million children without access to schools for months. The reconstruction of this critical infrastructure will require several years. As a result, Pakistan's performance on this crucial SDG is likely to face further difficulties.
The devastating floods have further hindered Pakistan's progress toward achieving the SDG targets and overall human development. In the previous year, Pakistan ranked 161st out of 192 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI). It's worth noting that SDGs and HDI share several common indicators.
On May 24, 2023, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approved Rs. 36.2 billion in supplementary grants, which includes Rs. 20 billion for the Sustainable Development Goals Achievement Programs (SAP). The term 'SAP' is used to refer to discretionary spending by lawmakers. This brings the total allocation for such schemes to Rs. 111 billion. Previously, the current government had approved Rs. 70 billion for these schemes. Therefore, this marks the fourth approval by the ECC for a supplementary grant for SAP. All these goals are interlinked and share a singular purpose: to improve the lives of the people. None of these SDGs can be achieved without investing in education, supporting innovative projects, and uplifting the backward areas.
The path to effectively managing climate-induced calamities largely rests with developed countries, given their status as the largest emitters of CO2. However, this does not absolve individual countries from making ideological and infrastructural changes to their lifestyles.
The writer is a columnist who writes for national print media.
E-mail: [email protected]
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